New alliances,new story: no clear wave

National and regional political developments and compulsions led to a realignment of forces that now has DMK-Congress-VCK combine pitted against the AIADMK-PMK-CPM-CPI-MDMK alliance. However,this is not a straightforward number game like last time,as delimitation and DMDK are additional factors that could decide the final outcome this time.

The results of the Lok Sabha polls could have an impact on the state politics as well. In the event of a Congress-AIADMK alliance post-poll,Jaya won’t even have to demand the dismissal of the state Government — the crucial point on which she pulled down the first NDA Government.

The DMK is running a minority government,after falling way short of simple majority. If the 35-member Congress withdraws support,the Karunanidhi government would collapse,even leading to mid-term Assembly elections. For now,nobody knows what exactly is on the cards.

In the ruling front,DMK is contesting from 21 seats,while its partners Congress (16),VCK (2) and IUML (1) have put up candidates in the remaining constituencies. Among the Opposition,the lead partner,AIADMK,has garnered the larger share of seats — 23 — though it is still 10 seats less than what it contested in 2004 in alliance with BJP. The remaining seats have been divided between PMK (7),MDMK (4) and the Left parties (3 each).

Left without partners,BJP has stitched an alliance with minor parties like Janata Party,a faction of Forward Bloc,and AISMK and NMK — two nascent outfits floated by actor-politicians Sarath Kumar and Karthik.

Among prominent candidates are former union ministers T R Baalu,A Raja,Dayanidhi Maran,Chief Minister M Karunanidhi’s elder son M K Azhagiri of the DMK; P Chidambaram,Mani Shankar Aiyer,EVKS Elangovan,V Narayanasamy and TNCC president K V Thangkabalu of the Congress; pro-LTTE leader Vaiko of MDMK; R Velu,A K Moorthi and former NSA detainee and party founder S Ramadoss’s lieutenant ‘Kaduvetty’ J Guru of PMK; CPI state secretary D Pandian and VCK general secretary Thol Thirumavalavan.

Till a few months ago,the ruling party faced criticism for price rise,unemployment and power shortage. The DMK’s family politics and alleged large-scale corruption were also moot points for critics. However,as poll date neared,the attention of Opposition outfits was focused on the conflict in Sri Lanka.

In a remarkable turnaround,AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalithaa seized the momentum,emerging as the tallest leader in favour of an independent homeland for the Tamils in Lanka. Going a step ahead,she even promised to send the Army to Lanka for the creation of Tamil Eelam.

This focused campaign by AIADMK,MDMK,PMK and CPI,along with non-political Tamil outfits and a few prominent film directors like Padma award winner Bharathi Raja and Seeman,has put the UPA — especially Congress — on to the backfoot.

The DMDK,launched in 2005 by actor ‘Captain’ Vijayakanth,is facing its first parliamentary elections. Like the Assembly and local body polls in 2006,the party is going solo,the only one to do that this time.

In the Assembly polls,the DMDK received 8.33 per cent vote; political observers are keenly watching the Captain’s tally this time around.

Tamil Nadu has a sizable number of Dalits of which the BSP is aiming to garner the maximum share this time. As of now,VCK is the biggest Dalit political party in Tamil Nadu.

There is a newly-formed Muslim outfit,Manitaneya Makkal Katchi,actor Karthik’s NMK that depend on Thevar votes,actor Sarath Kumar’s AISMK that banks on Nadar votes and few others like Kongunadu Munnetra Peravai,a political formation of the Kongu Vellalar community,influential in the west part of Tamil Nadu.