On a deadline

The Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists,whose indefinite nationwide strike has crippled Nepal,did not fail to notice the “change” in the government’s tone immediately after Prime Minister Madhav Nepal returned from the SAARC summit in Thimphu. UCPN-M chief Prachanda raised his anti-India pitch,hinting at what might have transpired in Thimphu to bolster the confidence of the “puppet government”. Nepal had left Kathmandu a besieged man. But on his return,his resolve to not step down in compliance with Maoist demands appeared strengthened. Not only was the Nepal army put on alert,but fissures within the coalition government and his own Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist couldn’t prevent Nepal securing the support of 22 of the 25 parliamentary parties. Meanwhile,the Maoists are out in the streets,protesting and asking for the installation of their government,with Prachanda — and no one but Prachanda — as prime minister.

At the heart of the simmering is the May 28 deadline for the constituent assembly,which must be extended. But for that,a two-thirds majority — and thereby having the Maoists on board — is necessary. This is an unwinnable battle,as both the ruling coalition and the Maoists stand to lose significantly if the deadline is not extended and the president acquires immense powers. Without a proper and complete drafting of the mandated new constitution,there will be little or no guarantee of lasting peace in the new republic. The constitution is meant to sort out and define government type,division of powers,and so on. The problem of the Maoist cadres,whose proposed integration with the army and then-PM Prachanda’s move against the army chief had precipitated the crisis that ended in Prachanda’s resignation exactly a year ago,must also be solved. Fissures exist within the Maoist camp too — fissures which Prachanda may try to airbrush with having Baburam Bhattarai (who had voiced his own prime ministerial ambitions earlier and who is more acceptable to other parties) at his side — and efforts must be made at a flexibility on leadership from the Maoists. If the UCPN-M budges a little,the Nepal government may also be willing to compromise.

At the moment,the worry remains that the street agitations may spiral out of control and pull the country into the vortex of fresh,disruptive violence or worse. New Delhi’s regional diplomacy is therefore being put to the test,to convey to all stakeholders in Nepal that India’s interests are constructive,namely that the peace process does not crumble. Knowing what is at stake,containing and ending the crisis must be simultaneous efforts.