Testing myths

For those outside the state,Tamil Nadus politics has long appeared among the most predictable in the nation. The two Dravidian parties,heirs if increasingly dissipated heirs to Periyars fiery,politicised,rationalistic sub-nationalism,would push up against each other; the crucial difference between them would be the strength of the alliance they built up; and the most crucial of allies would be the Congress,a distant third and yet kingmaker.

There was always an element of oversimplification to these ideas. Alliance-building here was always more than just a disembodied mathematical exercise. That was brought into sharper focus last week. The AIADMK announced,unilaterally,a list of 160 candidates and constituencies on Wednesday; those included several seats that were,at the moment,with the partys allies,the CPM and the CPI. And many of those that werent currently held by the Left were wanted by them too,as well as by the DMDK. The DMDK,led by actor-politician Captain Vijayakanth,had been for long the states putative third party,but had expected to throw in with the AIADMK this time around. That alliance never very popular with grassroots cadre who had worked hard to differentiate themselves from the two major Dravidian parties appeared to have flickered out. Another alliance partner,the MDMK,led by classical Tamil hardliner Vaiko,once jailed by the AIADMK under POTA before friendship reasserted itself,had its quota of seats unilaterally reduced from 35 to single digits. Was this just another whim of the AIADMKs leader,J. Jayalalithaa,who has a reputation for being mercurial? It might be more sensible to look at it as part of the hard bargaining necessary in a particularly heterogenous alliance,an idea reinforced by subsequent developments,as the AIADMK worked overtime to prevent its desertion by its allies.

Jayalalithaa knows,after all,that this is a watershed election. Several of the myths about TN politics will be tested. If the DMK pulls it off again,with Jayalalithaa,Vaiko and Vijayakanth all arrayed against it,will the idea that two big Dravidian poles have equivalent weight

be buried? If the AIADMK wins,what happens to the Congresss salience as that irreplaceable partner? And will the Congress,which not-so-secretly hopes for a revival as the DMK turns into a squabbling,fissiparous,family-run enterprise,be able to make good on its promise? All these and more will soon be answered.