The security analysis in the aftermath of the Mumbai and Delhi blasts in the last two months by Western intelligence experts and the Indian establishment has followed a curious and,ironically,contradictory track. In the past,whenever India was hit by a terror attack and authorities were quick to point fingers at Pakistan or groups based in that country,Western officials and even their media would take it with more than a pinch of salt saying India seemed to be jumping the gun in the absence of concrete evidence. Over the last two months though,Indian officials and ministers have been uncharacteristically cautious,talking about home-grown terror groups and going on a soul-searching trip about the radicalisation of Indian youth. The chatter outside the country,however,has seen a strong focus on Pakistan-inspired terror,the activities of Lashkar-e-Toiba and their possible connections to the two attacks. The chatter peaked this week and,even as India may quietly mutter that we-told-you-so,security experts say there is cause for alarm. While investigations into the two blasts have made slow progress,top global intelligence group Stratfor said in a report this week that a loose network of operatives linked to Lashkar,Indian Mujahideen and SIMI could be responsible. The Students Islamic Movement of India/Indian Mujahideen network was useful in recruiting and co-opting operatives,but it is a misconception to think these indigenous Indian groups worked directly for LeT, Stratfors Sean Noonan and Scott Stewart said in the report,The Evolution of a Pakistani Militant Network. In some cases,Pakistanis from LeT provided IED training and other expertise to Indian militants who carried out attacks,but these groups,while linked to the LeT network,maintained their autonomy. The most recent attacks in India Sept 7 in Delhi and July 13 in Mumbai probably have direct ties to these networks. However,while these networks have not shown the capability to conduct a spectacular attack since Mumbai,they continue to plan. With both the capability and intention in place,it is probably only a matter of time before they conduct additional attacks in India, the authors said. The historical signature of LeT attacks has been the use of armed assault tactics. so attacks of this sort can be expected. This echoes the feeling of some Indian security officials after the 13/7 Mumbai blasts that new terror modules,spawned by the joining of hands of disparate Islamist groups,had honed the expertise to make and explode bombs in the aftermath of 26 This suspicion also puts an end to questions whether the network and capabilities of SIMI/IM had been conclusively eliminated following arrests of alleged IM operatives since 2008,security sources said. Stressing that LeT still poses a significant threat,Noonan and Stewart said this is a threat that comes not so much from LeT as a single jihadist force but LeT as a concept,a banner under which various groups and individuals can gather,coordinate and successfully conduct attacks. The report could not have been better timed. Hours later,the US State Department designated IM as a foreign terrorist group,doing so to demonstrate its solidarity with India. But not all have been impressed with the quantity and quality of counter-terrorism cooperation between Washington and New Delhi. Testifying before the US House of Representatives during a hearing on the subject a day earlier,Lisa Curtis,a former CIA analyst and South Asia expert at The Heritage Foundation in Washington,said the two countries had failed to work as closely as they could have to minimise threats despite a general convergence of views on the need to contain terrorism. Indias inability to identify a specific organisation responsible for the recent bombing seems to define the evolving nature of the threat that India faces, Curtis said. Many analysts are starting to focus less on organisational designations and paying more attention to networks of individuals and the possibility that small groups of Indians may be working in coordination with Pakistan-based terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and HuJI. Revelations from the David C. Headley trial in Chicago apparently revealed that Pakistani intelligence and the LeT have worked together in recent years on an endeavour called the Karachi Project,which seeks to motivate and equip Indians to attack their own country. Curtis said a survey of terrorist attacks occurring in India over the last five years validates the theory that terrorism in India is increasingly being conducted by Indians working closely with Pakistan-based terrorist groups. Curtis,who has worked in Delhi,as well as some Congressmen and analysts urged Washington to pile the pressure on Pakistan and revitalise its counter-terrorism relationship with New Delhi. Their outlook though,was not too optimistic. There are no signs that the Pakistan military realises the harm the obsession with India is doing to their country. The Pakistan military will not abandon its fixation on India as the enemy. most of the Pakistan armys dominance over domestic politics is tied to the maintenance of hostilities with India, said a joint report by the Council on Foreign Relations and Aspen Institute India. It added,Despite domestic scepticism,the Manmohan Singh government has persisted in discussions with Pakistan on resolving bilateral disputes but in such a problematic bilateral climate,breakthroughs on India-Pakistan issues look infinitely remote. India-Pakistan relations are stuck and likely to remain so.
