Upper castes leaving,Mayawati casts net among Muslims

In the searing heat of east-central UP,two national parties are chasing what they believe is a window of opportunity in inhospitable terrain.

In the searing heat of east-central UP,two national parties are chasing what they believe is a window of opportunity in inhospitable terrain. The BJP and Congress have their eyes set on the Brahmin vote,seen to be slipping steadily out of Mayawatis hands as she goes after Mulayam Singhs Muslim support base. With polling over in one part of eastern UP,several trends that can be picked up from the electorate in Bundelkhand,which give an indication of the shape of things to come in the state:

 Vote shares of both BJP and Congress are set to go up from the 2007 Assembly elections,and even the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.

 Upper castes,particularly Brahmins,are disappointed in Mayawati upset with her style of governance and identification with criminals. Both BJP and Congress believe this disgruntled vote is coming to them.

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 By invoking the harsh National Security Act against Varun Gandhi,Mayawati has cast her net for Muslim voters,and hopes to put together a potent Dalit-Muslim alliance.

 Congress,BSP and BJP all believe the Samajwadi Party will lose both votes and seats,but this is not so evident on the ground.

 BJP expects to do well in western UP,and is looking at Congress to increase its vote share to at least 14-15 per cent,pulling down Mayawati and Mulayam in the process.

Talking to voters and local leaders of mainstream parties,it would appear that the Brahmin honeymoon with the BSP is over. We voted for Mayawati when the slogan was Chadh gundon ki chhaati par,muhar lagaa haathi par. But now the slogan is Gunday chadhe haathi par,goli maare chhaati par, said Rajesh Mishra,an advocate in Banda.

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It now seems the Congress is in a fighting position in at least 16 seats,despite there having been no general revival of party fortunes. The Nehru-Gandhi family is attracting voters in Rae Bareli (Sonia Gandhi),Amethi (Rahul Gandhi) and Sultanpur (Sanjay Singh); others like Jitin Prasada (Dhaurehra),Sudha Rai (Ghosi) and Sriprakash Jaiswal (Kanpur) are on a good wicket as well. In Kanpur and Ghaziabad,the Congress and BJP are locked in direct contests. The Congress wants its tally to reach at least the 2004 level of nine seats.

The BJP,on the other hand,believes that the return of Brahmin and other upper caste votes gives it a chance in at least 29 seats. Still,to be able to get more than 25 per cent of the vote,the party will need to break the consolidation of OBC votes. It is hoping Uma Bharti will pull in some Lodh support and that the Muslim vote will be split among the BSP,SP and Congress. In the latter context,the party does not want Varun Gandhi to tour the state widely: that,it fears,may only consolidate Muslim votes.

The BSP,too,has its eye on the Muslim vote,to compensate for the likelihood of the upper castes deserting the party. Behenjis goal of winning a minimum 40 seats is dependent on Muslims adding to the potent Jatav vote.

The decline of the SP (which won 35 seats in 2004) is in fact,the prediction of pundits in most political camps in UP. Reason: the Muslim voter is upset with the partys friendship with Kalyan Singh,and for its support to the India-US nuclear deal. This,however,may not pan out quite so simplistically: Muslims,at least in UP,can be expected to stick to the old logic of backing the strongest candidate against the BJP.