What Karnataka May

If Karnataka was on a political roller coaster in 2007, 2008 promises to be no less dramatic in the state.

If Karnataka was on a political roller coaster in 2007, 2008 promises to be no less dramatic in the state. This year, voters will exercise their choice on the party (or parties) that will rule them. Will that be in May or closer to the end of the year when the election administration is fully geared to conduct a poll subsequent to the conclusion of the delimitation exercise? In this decision hinges a major political tale.

Given the developments of 2006 — the flip-flop ‘now friends-now enemies’ relationship between the Janata Dal (S) and the BJP, the Congress waiting impatiently on the sidelines and the two spells of President’s Rule — the major political players in Karnataka are carefully weighing the electoral options. The BJP wants a quick poll to reap what it perceives to be the benefits of a ‘sympathy wave’, after being denied the opportunity to remain in power by the JD(S). The Congress would be happy with a poll as late as possible. The Janata Dal(S) does not seem sure, more concerned with keeping its flock intact and looking to the ruling political family for directions. The smaller political parties are hoping for a hung assembly to emerge as ‘king makers’. Where they stand clearly depends on where they anticipate they will sit in the House.

The six months’ span of President’s rule will end in May 2008. If elections are to be held within this period it would necessarily have to be within the framework of the present delimitation of constituencies.

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The reason why the BJP is all for an early poll is also this: the party is on a high after its victories in north India. The party realises that if it became the single largest party in the state assembly in 2004 it had a lot to do with the ‘Vajpayee factor’. An even better performance would require it to further consolidate its votes. At the present moment, the caste configuration appears to be favouring the BJP. A prominent Lingayat leader, B.S. Yeddyurappa, was brought down from the chief ministership abruptly and this factor could help consolidate the community votes in favour of the BJP.

The other dominant caste — the Vokkaligas — remain divided between the JD(S) and Congress. In 2004, the BJP had made serious inroads into the traditional Congress OBC vote bank and it hopes to further capitalise on these gains. All this explains why the party is baying for an early poll. The more the poll is delayed the greater is the likelihood of the ‘sympathy factor ‘ waning. Infighting within the state unit of the party could also spill out more in the open.

The Congress is keen on as delayed a poll as possible. The party would have ideally liked the new state assembly to be elected at the same time as the next Lok Sabha poll. For now, the Lok Sabha poll does not appear to be likely before mid-2009. Party leaders are clearly voicing their support for a post-delimitation poll. This would give them a long political rope to combat any sympathy factor that might be working in favour of the BJP. More importantly, the Congress needs to get its house in order. The state unit of the party seems to be in disarray, there is no clear direction and a lack of clarity on who will captain the state team. There seem to be too many potential captains with very few gutsy stroke players or swing bowlers!

The formal position of the Janata Dal (S) is that the party is ready for a poll immediately. In reality, its leaders are hoping that the negative impact of the acrimonious battle for power they had with the BJP is mitigated to some extent and the party’s credibility is salvaged. It is having serious problems keeping its rank and file together.

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All in all, Karnataka stands on the cusp of a transition. The 1983 election saw the end of one-party domination. The year 2004 saw the destabilising of a bi-polar electoral competition in the state. Will 2008 create a new bi-polarity or assert a continued multi-polarity? Maybe May will bring the answer. And then, it may not.

The writer is a political scientist based in Bangalore sshastri@eth.net