With most journals skipping a print issue on the holiday weekend, the big story of the season is now being tracked on their websites. As part of Newsweek’s online package, Ron Moreau asks after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination: “Can Musharraf survive?” He spotlights the confusion that could drive street politics: “While Islamic extremists are the most likely perpetrators of the attack, many emotional Pakistanis, especially the devoted rank and file of Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party, will blame Musharraf, and the powerful military and civilian intelligence agencies he controls, for the killing. That perception will resonate among many Pakistanis. Already, pro-Bhutto crowds have started antiregime rioting in the major cities of Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad. The house of one government minister has been torched. At least one Bhutto stalwart has publicly pointed the finger of blame at the regime. ‘This was not the work of Al-Qaeda or the Taliban,’ says a senior PPP stalwart who did not want to be quoted by name. ‘She told Musharraf this could happen before she came [back from exile, and] he laughed it off. [Pakistanis] know who is to blame for this.’”The Economist’s online edition worries about the implications for Bhutto’s party: “At a time of shock and mourning — in a country well-accustomed to both — new uncertainties weigh heavily in Pakistan. One concerns the future of the PPP, which may not survive without a Bhutto at the helm. Without the PPP, or something much like it, Pakistan may have no easily imaginable secular and democratic future.”Time’s Simon Robinson looks at ways of managing the immediate political instability: “Many leading Pakistanis believe that the only way to head off further civil unrest is to form a broad-based coalition government — what (former ISI chief Hamid) Gul calls ‘a national government of consensus’ — to tackle the extremist forces suspected in Thursday’s attack. I.A. Rehman, the director of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan agrees: ‘Pakistan’s survival depends on the earliest possible transition to democracy and the formation of an all-party national government.” Elections are scheduled for January 8, although so far there has been no official word on the vote’s status in the wake of Bhutto’s assassination, and some speculate they are likely to be delayed. Opposition leader Nawaz Sharif announced Thursday that his party would boycott the elections, threatening the vote’s legitimacy if it were to go forward. But if the vote is delayed and unrest continues, Rehman fears there is a real chance that regional divisions could lead to the breakup of the country. Karachi, the site of some of the worst violence, is Pakistan’s biggest city, the capital of the southern province of Sindh and the traditional power base for Bhutto’s family. Many in Sindh resent the government in Islamabad. ‘The provinces are pulling in different directions already and if all these forces are not kept in check then there is a serious threat to the integrity of Pakistan,’ says Rehman.With Islamabad accusing Baitullah Mehsud, a local Taliban leader in Waziristan, for the killing, The Atlantic Monthly showcases the question it put to leading strategic analysts and policy-makers in its December issue: “How likely is a US incursion into (Pakistan’s) tribal areas in the next two years?” In a panel that included Warren Christopher, Wesley Clark and Anthony Zinni, 65 per cent said, somewhat likely and 18 per cent responded, highly likely.
