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Journalism of Courage
International wheat prices have been on a rising path for a while now. The reasons are many and some are connected to India. On the back of rapid economic growth, population increases and changing preferences, wheat consumption is increasing in India. Of course, it is also increasing in China, and that further exacerbates the problem. But for the time being, let’s only think about India. Increasing wheat consumption in India has not been backed by any significant increase in wheat output in almost a decade. Nor do there seem to be any portents towards increase in Indian wheat production. The international markets have noticed these trends, and are pricing wheat high as a result.
For many years we invested in our manufacturing sector and did not invest in social or agriculture sectors, and had to suffer the food crisis consequences in the late sixties. With some significant help from the world and efforts within, we got the Green Revolution going. Those were heady years; for the first time in many years we did not need to import foodgrain and sometimes even exported some. But we were not really used to dealing with success, and forgot that efforts and innovation need to be continued. We again stopped thinking about investing in agriculture, our extension systems crumbled, irrigation infrastructure worsened, etc. All of this, of course, was much more on show in the reform years.
So agriculture productivities stagnated, despite good rainfall years, through much of the 1990s and 2000s. What is true of agriculture in general is much more true of wheat. Wheat production in India topped at 76 million tonnes in 2000 and since then it has averaged at about 70 million tonnes.
This year they say it will be 75 million tonnes if everything goes well. Sure, rabi sowing was a bit delayed, winter rains have been sparse, the temperature has been a bit on the warmer side; but things don’t seem to be so bad. So now we are aiming lower than what we achieved almost a decade back. Shameful, isn’t it? To put this in perspective, in 1968 we barely produced 10 million tonnes of wheat a year, and production had been stagnant at that level for many years. Within 10 years of sustained efforts, by 1978 we were at 30 million tonnes of wheat.
In those days we had little access to the latest technology, all other sectors were dependent upon agriculture, and the farmer tended to be poorer, less educated, with more mouths to feed, and had far fewer means for any improvements. The government also had fewer means and even lesser expertise. But a decision was taken, implementation occurred, problems surfaced, some problems were circumvented, some were not; but results were achieved very rapidly.
No such luck today. Not just the Central government, state governments across North India are equally, if not more, at fault. Will it be so difficult to increase wheat output? The answer, surprisingly, is no. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar continue to have very low productivity in wheat. So do Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. If Haryana and Punjab can achieve international yield levels, there is no reason why one cannot achieve the same in UP, Bihar, the Ganganagar region in Rajasthan and Malwa in MP.
This is only the beginning of a rapid increase in demand for wheat over the next few decades. Indians, whether in the south or the east, are increasingly showing a preference for wheat products. This is a long-term, decades-old trend, which the rapid economic growth and greater economic and cultural integration of the country seem to be only accelerating.
We really would not be able to depend on cheap imports where wheat is concerned. For one, this same trend towards increased consumer preference for wheat is being observed in China; consequently, despite its being the largest producer of wheat in the world, China will likely remain a large importer of wheat. The international prices for wheat are therefore going to remain high for some time to come. Two, international wheat varieties are rarely good for Indian cooking, and therefore imports of adequate varieties are difficult.
There is another long-term trend that we need to quickly catch and adjust to. Winter temperatures in the wheat belt have been a bit higher these last few years; this is only likely to continue as global warming worsens. So now we should generally be ready to change the seeds every 4-5 years.
There is a third shorter-term trend. Yields in many parts of India are not just stagnating, they are actually falling. It is also fairly clear why that is happening, and it is not related to water scarcity. For many years our farmers have been dumping various combinations of fertilisers on the HYV seeds along with other agro-chemicals. But crops don’t just require nitrogen, phosphorous or potassium. They also require a host of micronutrients. Except, many years of high- yield agriculture does strip the soil of these essential minerals and consequently there comes a point when no matter how good the seed or the other inputs, the yields are just not there. Here as well, solutions do exist and are well known to our agri-scientists. Large parts of north Indian farmland needs rejuvenation through addition of micronutrients.
India has already imported 1.79 million metric tonnes of wheat since July as demand outpaced local supplies. But the government has now claimed that it will not need to import any more wheat in the near future. The international markets of course work on better information sources. They know that India is now among the major wheat importing nations, and unlike many others, it will not import wheat for animal feed. It will therefore demand better quality wheat in the international markets. You reap what you sow and pay for what you don’t.
The writer heads Indicus Analytics
laveesh@indicus.net
