Wild Card Karnataka

Congress wants state elections clubbed with Lok Sabha polls. BJP wants the two delinked

The JD(S)-BJP alliance in Karnataka is over. Discord was the leitmotif of this alliance. The ‘Bellary incidents’, involving a minister in the government accusing the chief minister (and his family) of trying to harm him, and the results of the Urban Local Bodies (ULB) came as handy ‘excuse’ for the JD(S) to renegade on the agreement. The ULB elections clearly placed the BJP on the back-foot. A party, which prided itself on its performance in urban areas, had to reconcile itself to making marginal gains from the last time around. Its leadership even tried to argue that the ULB results were a vote for the coalition! The Congress too had nothing to rejoice in the election results. Though they emerged with the largest numbers, their performance was significantly poorer than in the previous ULB polls. Of greater concern to them was the fact that the JD(S) had made noteworthy inroads in Congress strongholds. The real gainer in these elections was the JD(S). This gave the party leadership the courage to go on the offensive against the BJP.

What are the political options before the main players? The BJP has extremely limited options. It can only hope for and demand that elections be held at the earliest. In the 2004 election, the BJP was able to emerge as the single largest party in the state assembly, largely riding on the goodwill for the NDA in general and Vajpayee in particular. Its leadership has already indicated that this time they will tour every village and campaign among the people about the injustice meted out to them. They hope to create a ‘sympathy wave’ they can cash in on. It will all depend on the timing of the elections and whether the party can project a picture of unity.

The JD(S) too has formally announced that it wants to seek the mandate of the people. Given a choice, most of its MLAs will not favour fresh elections. And in this context, informal negotiations with some Congress leaders have been on. The JD(S) seems to be caught in a bind. On the one hand they see the ULB polls as an indication of a rise in their grass-root support. The Indian Express-CNN-IBN poll conducted last month too reported that the popular support for the party had increased. At another level, they are unsure as to whether this could be sustained till the next elections, especially in the light of the events of the last two weeks. How would the public respond to the JD(S) not having kept its promise to transfer power? Will they be on the back-foot once the BJP launches a statewide campaign on the issue? Again, this would hinge on the timing of the elections.

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The Congress leadership at the state level awaits the ‘cue’ from the high command. Some leaders favour brokering an alliance with the JD(S) — or offering outside support — in order to consolidate their position. Others want to force a midterm poll. The ULB election results bring no cheer to the party. At the state level, the party is a hopelessly divided house. They are hoping to cash in on the collapse of the alliance and assume that the voters would endorse its claims to avoid further political instability. This complacency appears misplaced.

So how long will the present chief minister be able to remain in office? In the absence of an agreement between the Congress and the JD(S), would the governor opt for President’s Rule or ask the chief minister to continue as head of the caretaker government till fresh elections? Ideally, the Congress would like to club the Karnataka assembly poll with the Lok Sabha elections, which appear to be a distinct possibility early next year. The JD(S) and the BJP would prefer the Karnataka poll to be held much earlier, and de-linked from the Lok Sabha elections. The political maneouvring to follow, will only be to ensure this electoral advantage.

The writer is a Bangalore-based political scientist.