Will Paswan pass?

The battle for Bihar is arguably the most riveting one in the new year. It is possible to articulate the two sets of questions, come February: one, will Laloo Prasad Yadav’s remarkable 15-year dominance be further consecrated or will there be a scintillating upset in Bihar? The second set of questions has to do with the nature of governance in one of India’s most persistently benighted states: is it possible that Bihar will embrace a new politics, at a time when the happy common sense is gaining ground that the old identity politics is passe and politicians must talk development to get the people’s vote? For those preoccupied with the first set of questions, Ram Vilas Paswan is becoming the man you may take your eyes off at your own peril.

Paswan has proved himself a hardy traveller: from the Lok Dal in Bihar, through the Janata Party and then the Janata Dal in the National Front, to the “communal” BJP-led NDA and then the “secular” Congress-led UPA. But this is surely the Lok Janshakti Party chief’s moment in the sun. As the campaign for Bihar warms up the north India chill, Paswan is suddenly the rallying point for anti-Laloo forces in Bihar. It is to him they flock — most piquantly, Nitish Kumar erstwhile ally in NDA and then sworn rival till just a few months ago when Paswan joined the RJD and Congress to fight the NDA in May. Because other things have changed in Paswan’s world since the victory in May. Yadav has morphed into the enemy again. The need to keep “communal forces” at bay has been trumped by the imperative to oust him. Now it only remains to be seen whether the Congress in Bihar hitches its own inconsequential wagon to Paswan instead of Yadav. More importantly, will Bihar’s Muslims abandon the RJD and gravitate towards Bihar’s Dalits to vote for Paswan? Of course, it is still not clear whether or not Bihar’s Dalits will give Paswan the near monolithic allegiance that UP’s Dalits routinely offer BSP’s Behenji.

The options are much less clearly ranged for those concerned with the second set of questions about Bihar: whether or not the state will see a break from the kind of votebank politics that has convinced the voters that they don’t have a stake in their state’s governance and development. On this one, Paswan has no proven credentials. In Bihar, tragically, nobody does.