Will this war weather it out?

During the 1991 Gulf War allied forces had also faced some difficulties due to bad weather particularly during the dust storms. Americans have already tested the threat posed by the weather even before the start of the war. Four American soldiers were killed in the desert of northern Kuwait during the last week of February, when their Blackhawk helicopter crashed in a severe dust storm. Only a couple of days back the US and UK military forces encountered severe dust storms over Kuwait. This sandstorm coated US and British troops in choking dust in a reminder that desert winds might hamper any assault on Iraq. The swirling wind, lashed tent camps across northern Kuwait for about five hours overnight, also tested the morale of about 250,000 US and British troops in the Gulf region for a possible war on Baghdad. The overnight storm cut visibility to almost zero and left many soldiers complaining of sore eyes and throats. The rough sand also chocked weapons and other equipment from computers to helicopter engines.

Weather in Kuwait and Iraq plays a huge role in Washington’s military planning. These two incidences have definitely influenced the military planners. The winter in Kuwait lasts from November through mid-March. Winter temperatures in the desert vary considerably, rising to around 20 degrees Celsius in the day and falling rapidly to about 3 or 4 degrees Celsius at night. When the wind picks up speed on the flat expanses of Kuwait’s northern desert, the sand and dust flying through the air become intolerable. In the summer months of May through September, temperatures often exceed 50 degrees Celsius. Dust and sandstorms, which can often last for days, are more frequent during the summer, when hot, dry air called ‘Shamal’ blows in from the interior deserts. Due to these conditions, the US is expected to launch an offensive against Iraq as soon as possible if all other efforts fail. With the approach of summer US soldiers would face difficulties in wearing hot and cumbersome body suits to protect themselves from possible biological or chemical attacks.

Occurrences of early dust storms during the month of March could be an indicator for setting of early summer over Middle East region. Hence weather-wise American forces must be interested in exploiting the best available period i.e. end March and early part of April and this could be one of the reasons for the start of the war on 20th March. During this period American carriers will be able to launch aircraft better (more wind-over-deck), and their radars will be less troubled by deceptive ducting. Personnel and equipment will work better by avoiding the furnace-like heat of the summer. Casualties from heat exhaustion will be higher and results lower if they have to fight after April.

Along with the actual clouds and storms, American forces would also be worried about the smoke clouds created by burning oil. Trenches surrounding the capital Baghdad are being filled to obscure the battlefield and try to make it more difficult for air power to strike its targets. Within 24 hours of the start of the war there are reports of three oil wells on fire. It is also expected that they would be using phase of the moon to their advantage. Post-full moon, which was on March 18, every night, will progressively produce less and less light each night until the new moon on April 1, which will produce no light. The weeks on either side of April 1, with limited moonlight will give the greatest tactical advantage to American ground and air forces. During new moon phase with no light coming from the moon, it is difficult to see approximately 70 feet away while during full moon one can see as far as 160 feet away. As compared to Iraqi forces the allied forces are better equipped with excellent night vision equipments. They can fight a conclusive battle under the cover of darkness; in the past they had started the 1991 Gulf War on a night with practically no moonlight.

The major area of concern for American forces would be the direction of wind. It could be possible that Iraq may take the advantage of the wind direction for using chemical weapons. Under favourable wind conditions it is possible for Iraq to use chemical weapons on American forces without affecting its forces and local population.

Today, to use the military’s parlance, commanders want to ‘own the weather’. It is expected that the Americans are aware of the strengths and weaknesses, the weather sensitivities, of the weapons systems. Present generation sophisticated weaponry makes weather less of a factor than it was even 10 years ago. In most cases they have a technological edge. However, history is replete with instances in which commanders failed to heed the weather. By taking the advantage of the weather it is possible for a low-tech force to outwit a high-tech force. It is easier to fight a war with a computer but for a computer it is very difficult to cope with fine-grained sand, which is available in abundance in the area where more than 2 million American forces are deployed.

(The author is a defence analyst. The views expressed are his own)