Wounded Congress won’t stop stalking

For the moment it is clear that the Congress is not going to withdraw support to the UF at least not on this issue and Kesri has lumped this rebuff. He described the Government’s decision not to impose President’s Rule as “unfortunate”. While his public expression of unhappiness was strong by any standards, privately he is learnt to have called up Gujral to say that he had no hard feelings.

The difference between yesterday and today was not just the Attorney General’s view that there were insufficient grounds for imposing President’s Rule in UP, coming in the wake of Narayanan’s decision to return the Cabinet’s recommendation, which the Prime Minister used as his brahmastra.

Nor was it the resolve of regional bosses to strongly oppose the decision.

It was, among other things, the internal pressure by fellow Congressmen on Kesri which reined him in. With the obvious advantage the issue would give the BJP and the widespread media criticism of the decision, it was clear to Congressmen that President’s Rule in UP would not yield them the anticipated political or electoral dividends. They were therefore prepared to soften their stand when the PM sent intermediaries to talk to some CWC members.

Pranab Mukherji, who is seen as Kesri’s number two, told The Indian Express that “the decision (on continuing Congress support) will be taken in an appropriate forum and not by an individual”. He saw nothing unusual in the UF ignoring the Congress viewpoint. It had done the same on the party’s demand for President’s Rule in Maharashtra and in Assam.

The truth is that the Congress is not ready for elections yet. Gujral should have known that yesterday and called Kesri’s bluff. The fiasco which reinforced the Congress’ criticism that the UF is a rudderless ship and can be buffetted around need not have been enacted.

But this does not mean that the Congress President will not be on the lookout for issues to attack the UF and to deepen its contradictions in the days to come. If anything, this process will gather momentum. It is possible that the Gujral-Kesri relationship, solid so far, will start showing cracks.

While the Congress has become more vulnerable with a large group of its partymen making common cause with the BJP in UP and the uncertain situation in Gujarat, it is also likely that the developments of the last two days sowed the seeds of an understanding between the Congress, Mulayam and Kanshi Ram. The Congress may hope to broker such an arrangement, though both the SP and BSP leaders are slippery customers. But vulnerable to the BJP’s offensive, both the SP and the BSP will be in the same boat now.

It is also possible that Kesri made progress in a tie-up attempt with Kanshi Ram both in Bihar and in Madhya Pradesh. It is significant that Kanshi Ram took off from Lucknow to address 40 meetings in and around Patna apparently in preparation for impending elections even as the drama his party triggered off was being played out here.

There is no denying that today’s setback will open Kesri to criticism within the party, and may lead to realignments within the Congress. But then the powers of the party president in a feudal party like the Congress should not be underestimated.

Countdown to Cabinet volte-face

2.30 am: President returns Cabinet recommendation; Shocked UF leaders go into a huddle; Cabinet decides to meet at 11 am.

7 am: Gujral begins contacting Jyoti Basu, Chandrababu Naidu, Moopanar, Karunanidhi, Deve Gowda to apprise them of President’s move. They advise him to reverse decision to clamp President’s rule.

11 am: Cabinet meets; Maran begins discussion by opposing Kalyan’s dismissal; PM stays mum, says it’s for everyone to decide; Pro-Central rule Mulayam and status quoist Indrajit Gupta clash; Yerran Naidu registers TDP protest; Attorney-General’s opinion further weakens Mulayam’s case; decision deferred; BJP leader Vajpayee, over phone, appeals to PM not to succumb to pressure.

3.30 pm: Regional parties say Cabinet should seize chance given by President to withdraw Central rule order; Jaipal, Jena and Paswan go to Kesri with compromise formula under which Assembly would be kept under suspended animation; Congress chief rejects idea.

5.30 pm: Cabinet resumes meeting; Indrajit walks in at 6.30 pm. Emotional Mulayam pleads against reversing decision but fails to move rest who decide to maintain status quo in UP; Mulayam threatens to quit UF.

7 pm: Mulayam, with fellow SP ministers Beni Prasad Verma and Janeswhar Mishra, walks out of meeting in a huff; refuses to meet journalists.