Zimbabwe have a point to prove

“In a way, I’m quite happy that we have to play really well if we want to go to the semi finals,” said veteran batsman Andy Flower. “We want to feel that we deserve to be here.”

Zimbabwe’s got the benefit of four free points when England forfeited its match in Harare and also split the points with Pakistan in its last league match due to a washout in Bulawayo. Its losses were against defending champion Australia and India and its two on-field victories were against minnows Namibia and the Netherlands.

The World Cup format was widely criticised when Zimbabwe and Kenya advanced, with the help of forfeits and rain-enforced abandonments, while two-time winners the West Indies, host South Africa, 1992 champion Pakistan and England were eliminated in the first round.

New Zealand just scraped in when South Africa was held to a tie by Sri Lanka after a downpour in Durban, although the Kiwis had wins over the West Indies and South Africa.

“We can beat any Test team, we do believe we can beat these sides,” said Flower. “It’s up to us as the underdogs to upset them, but beating New Zealand last time certainly gives us a bit of a psychological edge.”

The South African pitches have been somewhat slower and lower than anticipated during the tournament, meaning Zimbabwe could be difficult to beat.

Working in New Zealand’s favour has been a steady improvement in form throughout the tournament, climaxed by a first-ever win over South Africa in South Africa in a thrilling match at the Wanderers.

That match saw New Zealand captain Stephen Fleming at his imperious best, scoring a fluent undefeated 134 as rain helped New Zealand win by nine wickets. Also impressive with the bat has been Scott Styris, who clubbed a century in 104 balls off Sri Lanka, going on to score 141 with six sixes in a losing effort.

With Chris Cairns running into form with the bat at the same time as Craig McMillan and Nathan Astle, New Zealand is looking stronger.

Cairns knows the New Zealanders also need to win all their Super Six matches to guarantee a spot in the semis, and he’s relishing the challenge.

Since the South African victory, the New Zealand bowling attack has also looked increasingly solid, spearheaded by the pace of Shane Bond. One problem for the Kiwis might be the fitness of back-up bowler Jacob Oram, who has grabbed 11 wickets in the tournament but is struggling with a bout of the flu.

Another problem is that left-arm spinner Daniel Vettori hasn’t been penetrative although he has been economical. Zimbabwe’s batting relies heavily on the fine left-hander Andy Flower, and if he doesn’t fire, there’s perhaps a lack of tenacity to push an innings toward higher totals.

The exceptions during the tournament have been Craig Wishart, who scored a mammoth undefeated 172 against Namibia, and Andy Blignaut, who smashed a 25-ball 50 off the Australian attack, as well as a half-century off 32 balls against the Dutch.

It’s the bowling which will make the Zimbabweans real underdogs.

Captain Heath Streak is something of an elder statesman amongst fast bowlers, and the support is very thin. Douglas Hondo doesn’t look penetrative, and spinners Douglas Marillier and Brian Murphy probably won’t be major threats to class batsmen.

For all that, the matches in the Super Six phase of the World Cup are all big matches, and one-day cricket can turn on a moment of individual brilliance. Both New Zealand and Zimbabwe have individuals who can turn a match.