Opinion At each other’s doorstep

The big question for the 21st century is whether a similar spirit of pragmatic engagement will also be the driving force for the second most important geopolitical relationship in the world,namely the relationship between the world’s two greatest emerging powers: China and India. Indeed,within a decade or two,the Sino-Indian relationship will become the most important geopolitical relationship,for China will soon realise that a declining power like the US will provide fewer challenges to China’s rise than a rising power like India. Given the potential importance of the Sino-Indian relationship,it is vital that in the early phases,the right policies are put in place for managing it.

On the economic front,it is easy to work out a win-win arrangement. PM Manmohan Singh put it well when he said that “there is ample space in the world to accommodate the growth ambitions of both India and China.” China and India share a fundamental common interest in seizing the best historic opportunity they have had in over 200 years to grow their economies and to catch up with the developed Western economies. Neither China nor India has an interest in getting distracted by geopolitical squabbles.

The explosive growth in trade,exceeding all targets,also demonstrates the potential for the two economies to cooperate. In addition to the $50 billion in annual trade last year,Chinese companies have won $30-40 billion in contracts to build power stations and $10 billion in contracts to build telecoms infrastructure. Chinese companies are now supplying equipment for a quarter of the new power capacity India is adding to its grid,up from almost nothing a few years ago. When India opened up its economy in 1991,almost no one would have predicted the Sino-Indian economic relationship would have become as close and inter-dependent as it has. And there still remains strong up-side potential as there is a lot of genuine admiration in China for India’s strong entrepreneurial class.

On the cultural front,there are also no fundamental contradictions between China and India. Unlike the relationship between Islam and the West,which is fraught with civilisational contradictions going back to the Crusades,there is little danger of a clash of civilisations between China and India. The more thoughtful Chinese scholars understand and appreciate that Buddhism was a big gift from India to China. And most Chinese have heard of the legendary journey that the famous Chinese monk Hsuan Tsang undertook in the years 629-645. Hence,it was wise for the Indian pavilion in the Shanghai Expo to highlight his visit.

On the cultural front,it might be useful for both the Chinese and Indian governments to undertake a sociological study of Singapore’s society. No other society demonstrates the cultural comfort between Chinese and Indian societies as much as Singapore does. Singapore is clearly a Chinese majority society,with the Chinese making up 75 per cent of the population. The Indians only make up 6 per cent. Despite this,the president and several ministers are Indian,thereby contributing a significant share of the country’s leadership. Sino-Indian marriages are growing faster than any other multi-cultural marriages in Singapore society.

The third leg of the tripod,the geopolitical leg,provides the shakiest dimension of the Sino-Indian relationship. A quick survey of Indian newspapers and journals will show a rising level of concern over the growing Chinese presence in India’s neighbours,including Nepal,Sri Lanka,Bangladesh and,especially,Pakistan. It is quite natural for some Indian commentators to suggest China may be developing a containment policy around India.

Those who worry about such a potential Chinese containment policy should also be aware that the geopolitical stack of cards is already stacked in India’s favour. The total combination of India’s neighbours,including Bangladesh,Nepal,Sri Lanka and Pakistan,cannot tie India down. By contrast,China may have to deal with a geopolitical nightmare if its rapid rise alarms its neighbours and competitors. A geopolitical combination of the US,India,Japan,Russia and Australia is something that no Chinese geopolitical planner wants to deal with. The combined political,economic and military weight of these five powers will be much larger than China’s.

This is why China has been,overall,remarkably careful and prudent in managing its rise. It has bent over backwards in many ways to avoid alarming America. So far,by contrast,China has paid little attention to India geopolitically. Once it begins to do so,it will soon realise it is in China’s long-term interest to maintain a stable win-win relationship with India. There will be difficult testy moments over issues like the border,Dalai Lama and Pakistan. Overall,despite the differences,both sides can work out a mutually beneficial relationship.

The writer is dean,Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy,National University of Singapore,and has written ‘The New Asian Hemisphere: the Irresistible shift of Global Power To the East.’

canasiansthink@expressindia.com