Opinion C Raja Mohan writes: Delhi must look beyond H-1B

But let us first address Indian concerns about H-1B visas. Worrying about the American debate is futile since Delhi has little influence over its outcome. The H-1B visa system, part of the broader immigration debate in America, pits US businesses against growing domestic resistance to rapid increase in foreign populations. Given America’s labour shortages — in agriculture, healthcare and technology — commercial interests strongly support immigration. Meanwhile, anti-immigrant sentiment across the American political spectrum remains a persistent force.

The traditional left argues that immigration depresses wages, and favours capital over labour. In contrast, the liberal left advocates welcoming immigrants based on humanitarian and universalist principles. The conservative backlash against unrestricted immigration, pushed by the Democrats, has been a key factor in Trump’s victory. Trump quickly aligned with business interests, emphasising how skilled immigration maintains America’s scientific and technological edge. Both sides now acknowledge that the US immigration system needs reform. The challenge for American policy now lies in balancing support for skilled, legal immigration while curtailing illegal entry. India is unlikely to lose in this scenario, as the US tech industry’s demand for imported talent continues, with India remaining the largest source. However, Delhi must cooperate more in preventing illegal Indian immigration while supporting merit-based legal immigration.

Beyond H-1B visas, Trump is likely to bring three major changes to American technology policy. First, the domestic political dimension. Recent years have shown that technology, far from being neutral in political disputes, has significantly influenced the battles between liberals and conservatives. Republicans, especially Trump supporters, have long accused Facebook and Twitter of liberal bias and censoring conservative views. Since acquiring Twitter and rebranding it as X, Musk has actively worked to reverse this bias.

Facebook has followed suit, with Mark Zuckerberg acknowledging a decade-long pressure to accommodate demands by the liberal and Democratic establishment. President Joe Biden has strongly criticised Facebook’s decision to eliminate “fact checkers” and adopt X’s community notes approach for context. The subjective nature of “fact checking” is well-known. Trump’s victory will likely shift this balance toward conservatives — a shift that will extend beyond America.

Musk’s involvement in British and European politics has initiated a major Western conflict on perceived “liberal hegemony”. The European left, long comfortable with ideological interventions through liberal internationalism, now faces opposition from tech-backed, cross-border conservative coalitions. This Western ideological struggle will inevitably envelop other democracies.

A second feature of Trump’s second term is the emergence of “techno-libertarians”. While conservatives traditionally advocate for limited government, these techno-libertarians actively champion dismantling the extensive “administrative state” in the US and West.

Trump’s decision to appoint Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead the mission to massively downsize government reflects his ideological commitment to unleashing the potential of new technologies. Alongside other techno-libertarians like PayPal founder Peter Thiel, Musk and Ramaswamy advocate removing bureaucratic oversight of emerging technologies. This approach is most likely to result in a reversal of Biden’s AI regulation policies. While Biden prioritised safety, ethics and accountability in AI development, Trump and his techno-libertarian allies seek to remove bureaucratic constraints and unleash innovation’s full potential in the US.

The third aspect of Trump’s tech policy will be intensified competition with China. His first term broke the long-standing American consensus on deeper US-China ties, while Biden focused on confronting China’s challenges, placing technology at the core of this strategy.

Biden has implemented extensive technology sanctions against China, tightening restrictions through last week. His strategy includes reshoring and “friendshoring” tech supply chains while increasing investment in defence technologies. Biden also sought engagement with China on AI to prevent an unrestricted arms race.

The Trump team shares Biden’s goal of reasserting US technological leadership over China. All signs point to increased domestic tech development and stronger constraints on China. Emphasising peace through strength, the Trump team is likely to pursue aggressive military AI development, possibly with less concern for ethical considerations on autonomous weapons. Their plans for “Manhattan Projects” in military technology indicate a major push for defence-oriented AI.

Parts of Trump’s team have criticised Biden’s approach of engaging Beijing while competing with China. The hawks in the Trump administration have less time for the idea of engagement and would want to go full tilt at confronting China. The new administration will likely show less consideration for arms-control ideas inherited from the Cold War in managing AI’s military implications. Trump will probably favour a policy of pursuing unilateral advantages in the AI field over multilateral approaches.

It remains to be seen how focused Trump would be on sustaining Biden’s policy of “reshoring” and “friend-shoring” of tech supply chains and building “geo-technological” coalitions with friends and allies. The emphasis on advanced technological collaboration with India — both bilateral and minilateral — was its signature strategic theme.

What about Trump’s well-known  predilection for the “big deal” with Xi Jinping? Trump will seek to put his personal stamp on relations with China and will seek to explore a “grand bargain”. Some Trump-allied tech entrepreneurs, including Musk, have Chinese business interests. Will they back Trump’s quest for an accommodation with Beijing?

All American administrations deal with competing interests and imperatives on foreign policy, especially on relations with other great powers. Trump’s inclination for a deal with China is likely to be constrained by the structural contradictions between the world’s foremost powers. It will also not be easy to dismantle the range of US

technology sanctions against China in the last few years.

Meanwhile, the convergence of three factors — the current turning point in the history of technological development, America’s enduring capacity for rapid innovation, and Trump’s political will and capacity to promote global change — could reshape the international system’s social, economic and geopolitical dynamics. Whether one likes it or not, India’s tech talent is integral to the first two factors. Delhi’s diplomacy will have a key role in finding common ground between India’s strategic interests and Trump’s tech policy in the next four years.

The writer is a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express