The all-party meeting convened by the prime minister and the chairperson of the UPA on September 15 reached a consensus to send an all-party delegation to Kashmir to interact with all Kashmiri parties,including the separatists,and report back to the prime minister to enable the government to adopt various measures which would at least partially satisfy the agitators in Kashmir and initiate a dialogue under peaceful conditions. The prime minister referred to the fact that while some violence in Kashmir was spontaneous,some was orchestrated. The UPA chairperson stressed the need to understand the causes for the anger of the youth in Kashmir and called for magnanimity. It appeared that most of the participants,not all,proceeded on the basis that the agitators in Kashmir had genuine grievances and they will be amenable to discussion and a rational solution of those grievances. On the other hand,Syed Ali Shah Geelani,the separatist leader,had already asserted that he did not expect any positive result from the all-party meet. The demand that unconditional dialogue should be initiated by the government with all Kashmiri leaders,including the separatists,has been reiterated and there was no emphasis on a specific grievance redressal. The PM emphasised the need for restoration of peace as a necessary condition to dialogue and for grievance redressal.
If the agitation in Kashmiri towns is about redressable grievances and the agitators are interested in dialogue and having their grievances addressed,then there should be peace in the next few days in Kashmir to enable the authorities to restore normalcy and allow the all-party delegation to move about freely and meet all Kashmiri leaders including the separatists. There is an alternative hypothesis referred to by the PM,that at least part of the violence was deliberately orchestrated. Underlying that hypothesis is the assessment that there are elements in Kashmir who are opposed to any grievance redressal or dialogue and are more interested in converting the Kashmir situation into an intifada to coincide with the opening of the UN general assembly session run-up to the Obama visit. If that hypothesis is correct then there may be no reduction in violence to facilitate the all-party delegations visit to Srinagar or meetings with the separatist leaders. One should instead expect non-cooperation from the separatist leaders and resurgence of violence. The issue will be tested from today and we may not have to wait long for an answer.
Not much thought appears to have been given to the structure and process of Kashmir-Delhi political dialogue. In Kashmir,there are a large number of national and regional parties functioning within the framework of the Indian Constitution and are represented in the legislature and in Parliament. There are also separatist groups who have boycotted elections and whose popular support is not determinable but who are vociferous in their demands and are behind the agitations. The elected Kashmiri parties want the separatists to be included in the unconditional dialogue. In Delhi too there is no consensus on how the Kashmir problem should be addressed and on various component issues,such as the Armed Forces Special Powers Act or the degree of autonomy to be extended. It is obvious a Srinagar-Delhi unconditional political dialogue assembling all the stakeholders on both sides may only result in each party or group restating its known position and posturing for its constituency. Such an unstructured dialogue would not produce any result for eons to come.
The recently released Ipsos MORI poll conducted by the London School of Economics showed that while in the Valley separatist sentiment may be relatively stronger,in the whole state of J&K the majority want to stay with India. In regions other than the Valley opposition to separatism is very strong. In such circumstances a rational approach to a political dialogue will be for all parties in the state,non-separatists and separatists,to evolve a consensus among themselves and present it to Delhi,where it could be discussed at a national all-party meeting to evolve a consensus decision. Within non-separatist and separatist parties and groups in the state there is at present no consensus and internal differences are deep,some based on personality clashes.
Delhi will not be able to arrive at any peaceful solution to the issue by negotiating directly with a whole host of Kashmiri parties,constitutionalists and separatists. Any concession to one or the other set of parties will be sabotaged by those left out. Nor can Delhi afford to overlook the possibility of Pakistans ISI initiating and sustaining violence. It looks as though the Kashmiri parties and the separatists are attempting to use Delhi to cover up their own crypto civil war. Kashmiri crowds are indulging in intense violence to provoke the Kashmiri policemen under an elected Kashmiri administration. The Indian army and paramilitary forces (the CRPF is a police force at the disposal of the Kashmir police) are not involved in the present violence. Delhi should not get itself trapped in the crypto Kashmiri civil war.
The writer is a senior defence analyst
