Opinion For Vi, telecom sector and its financiers, clearer visibility

In this light, the government’s equity conversion should not be seen in isolation. It represents a policy recognition of the sector’s past distortions — and an attempt to correct for them without undermining regulatory sanctity. For lenders, this signals that the system is capable of pragmatic course correction when structural bottlenecks threaten long-term viability.

The government’s equity conversion delivers three outcomes that carry weight in any credit assessment: Financial relief, enhanced liquidity prospects, and operational continuity.

First, Vi gains estimated cash flow relief of Rs 44,200 crore over FY26-FY28. This, coupled with the Rs 18,000 crore raised through its successful follow-on public offer (FPO) in April 2024, creates substantial room for the company to stabilise operations, invest in network enhancements, and manage liabilities more effectively.

Second, the clarity in structure and promoter backing improves the company’s ability to raise new capital. Vi has stated its intent to raise Rs 25,000 crore in fresh debt during FY26, which, if supported by a credible business plan, has a better chance of materialising with lender support. The government’s presence on the cap table reduces perceived asymmetry of risk and signals that long-term viability of a three-player market is a policy objective.

Third, the fact that the Vodafone Group and Aditya Birla Group retain operational control makes it clear that this is not an implicit nationalisation, but a collaborative reset between private promoters and the government. For lenders, continuity in management alongside capital support provides both comfort and accountability.

The avoidance of insolvency — once a looming concern — is no small outcome. The collapse of a large operator like Vi would have had consequences across the financial system and consumer ecosystem. Now, with that risk behind us, lenders have a firmer ground on which to re-engage.

In particular, the significant reduction in Vi’s bank borrowings — now down from Rs 36,000 crore to approximately Rs 2,300 crore — reflects the company’s conscious effort to de-leverage and maintain repayment discipline over the years. This track record should not go unnoticed. It demonstrates that Vi, despite its challenges, has upheld trust with its lenders — a foundation on which new partnerships can be rebuilt.

Banks must still perform their due diligence. But with deferred government dues, stabilising revenue, and long-term promoter commitment, the risk parameters have evolved. Structured debt, project-linked financing, or ring-fenced instruments could all be part of a phased re-engagement, depending on the quality of the business plan presented.

While policy support has created breathing room, the responsibility now lies with Vi to capitalise on it. Execution is critical. The proposed Rs 50,000-Rs 55,000 crore investment in network expansion over the next three years must be implemented with discipline and visibility. Key metrics — from 4G expansion to 5G rollout, ARPU growth, and customer churn — will need to reflect progress quarter by quarter.

Engagement with banks should go beyond capital raising. It should involve transparent dialogue on project viability, risk-sharing frameworks, and long-term business strategy. Banks lend not just to companies but to credible roadmaps. Vi must now convert policy and capital signals into operational credibility.

At a strategic level, the government’s intervention in Vi helps preserve competitive balance in the telecom sector. A three-player market is essential — not only to protect consumer choice and price stability, but to ensure long-term investments in infrastructure and digital access.

The implications for banks go beyond one company. A healthier telecom sector lifts adjacent industries — from tower infrastructure and equipment supply to digital payments and fintech partnerships. As lenders, we must view telecom as a core enabler of economic productivity and support its recovery with pragmatism and precision. This is particularly relevant as India’s digital economy gains momentum. As noted in the Reserve Bank of India’s Report on Currency and Finance 2023–24, the digital economy already accounts for around a tenth of India’s GDP and is projected to grow to a fifth by 2026. A robust and inclusive telecom backbone is indispensable to this transition.

The government’s equity conversion in Vi is not a conclusion — it is a course correction. For banks, it presents an opening to re-engage with an asset that, though challenged, is systemically important. For Vi, it is a chance to show that relief can be converted into results. And for the policy ecosystem, it reflects a growing maturity in supporting systemic stability without compromising on accountability.

The road ahead will require careful steps. But with clearer visibility, shared responsibility, and structured ambition, this could well be the start of a more stable chapter — for Vi, for the sector, and for its financiers.

The writer is former chairperson, SBI