Opinion Hard calculations in Tamil Nadu

The political discourse in Tamil Nadu has come a long way since 1996. Back then,the AIADMK was considered bad company to keep. P.V. Narasimha Rao,then the Congress party’s high command,was in a minority of one to insist that the Congress stick with Jayalalithaa. The party’s Tamil Nadu leaders,led by G.K. Moopanar and assisted by P. Chidambaram,walked out to form the Tamil Maanila Congress and tied up with M. Karunanidhi’s DMK. The Congress party,or whatever was left of it in Tamil Nadu after it lost power in 1967,became the TMC. The issue that led to the split and the realignment of forces then was the popular perception that Jayalalithaa was corrupt.

In May 1996,it did appear as though the people of Tamil Nadu voted against the corrupt,or the allegedly corrupt Jayalalithaa. But then,if the votes are an indicator,it must be held that the people of Tamil Nadu had voted against the DMK in 1977 when M. Karunanidhi was seen as corrupt. That was the context in which MGR emerged. A commission of inquiry,headed by Justice R.S. Sarkaria,had gone into Karunanidhi’s past to formulate the phrase “scientific corruption” to explain the means adopted to amass illegal wealth and make it appear as if things were fine. The report of the Sarkaria Commission,however,was buried. Indira Gandhi appointed the commission (before she lost power to the Janata) and also buried the report (after she returned as prime minister in 1980). The DMK and the Congress became allies in 1980,thanks to Justice Sarkaria. So,if past experience is anything to go by,corruption has not determined the course of elections. Some believed to be corrupt have won elections and others known to be squeaky clean have lost. (K. Kamaraj had lost elections in Tamil Nadu.)

For Karunanidhi,a win this time is crucial. Anointing his son,M.K. Stalin,as heir depends on the party emerging as the leader of a winning coalition. An adverse outcome is bound to complicate things. To let Stalin and M.K. Alagiri fight the succession war when Jayalalithaa sits as chief minister is not a happy proposition. Control over state machinery is critical to settle such battles,as Karunanidhi knows only well.

The question then,is whether the DMK-Congress-PMK,with some small and local players in the fold,is strong enough to overwhelm the AIADMK-led alliance which now consists of the two Left parties,the MDMK and some smaller outfits. An answer to this depends on the outcome of the negotiations between Jayalalithaa and Vijayakant as much as on the extent to which the 2G spectrum allocation scam affects the DMK’s prospects.

Vijayakant’s DMDK has emerged as a strong platform with 10 per cent voteshare and support from a cross-section of social groups. If the party’s performance in the various regions of Tamil Nadu is an indicator,it has eaten into the PMK’s support base in a big way. Vridachalam,from where Vijayakant had won his assembly seat in 2006,was formerly considered a PMK bastion. This explains the importance of Vijayakant in Jayalalithaa’s plans,and the inevitability of Ramadoss going over to Karunanidhi even if it meant humiliation. The DMDK’s arrival with a bang (in 2006) can be read as an expression of fatigue among a section of the voters,of the limited choice between the DMK and the AIADMK. It remains to be seen as to whether the DMDK can hold its ground as an AIADMK ally this time.

Jayalalithaa seems to have attended to another weakness; the southern parts of Tamil Nadu,the AIADMK’s citadel since 1977,had turned against her party in 2009. That was M.K. Alagiri’s achievement. Her alliance with K. Krishnasamy (whose hold over the dominant Dalit community there is established) can turn the tide only if the Puthiya Tamizhagam chief ensures the transfer of the Dalit votes to the AIADMK across the region.

Several strong food schemes,relatively steady industrial growth,and a cadre (even if it is sustained by the distribution of largesse and means to corruption) continue to be the DMK’s strength. These had sustained the DMK in May 2006 and helped the DMK-Congress-PMK-Left alliance manage a majority in the assembly then. And there is no sign of a wave against the regime now,as there was in May 1996 against Jayalalithaa.

Jayalalithaa cannot boast of a similar organisation,not because her regime desisted from dispensing favours but because she was,and remains,suspicious of her partymen. With the Left parties now in the fold,she is assured of a cadre,and the DMDK can also claim organisational support,aside from votes.

The battle,indeed,is between two strong combines. If the 2G spectrum scam becomes a factor,it is bad news for the ruling combine in this election as well as to the DMK in the long term. Corruption plays a dominant role in democracies,but only in mature democracies. These coming elections will be a test of how much the issue resonates in Tamil Nadu today.

The writer is a lawyer in the Madras high court