Opinion North Korean buffer

In an important political gesture,President Hu Jintao showed up at the North Korean embassy in Beijing to sign the condolence book. “Cooperative relationship between China and North Korea is the immutable and unwavering policy of China’s party and government”,Hu wrote. He also called on the North Korean people to rally behind Kim Jong-un and “turn their anguish into strength” by uniting behind the new leader and the ruling party.

Beijing also signalled that it is ready to receive Kim Jong-un at the earliest mutually convenient date in China.

As it moved to protect its many longstanding interests in North Korea,China also got in touch with South Korea and the United States. China’s foreign minister,Yang Jiechi,told US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan of Beijing’s commitment to maintain peace and stability in the peninsula.

China’s determination to beef up its buffer state in northeast Asia was also evident in the months before Kim Jong-il’s death. Kim,who rarely ventured abroad,travelled to Beijing four times in the 18 months before his death. During his last visit to China in May,Beijing declared that its alliance with Pyongyang is “sealed in blood” and will be passed on to the next generation. In recent years,as North Korea reeled under international sanctions,its trade and economic relations with China have grown rapidly. China accounted for more than 80 per cent of North Korea’s international commerce in 2010 valued at $4.2 billion in 2010. Beijing’s share in 2005 stood at about 50 per cent. At the political level,China stood by Kim Jong-il in his recent military confrontations with the South.

America’s options

As China secures its protectorate amidst potentially destabilising internal change,the US appears to have been surprised by the latest turn of events in North Korea.

US media reports say the Obama administration had no intelligence on the death of Kim Jong-il,which was announced only two days after the “Dear Leader” passed away. In the last few weeks,Washington was apparently working out a deal with Pyongyang on providing large-scale food aid in return for a suspension of North Korea’s uranium enrichment programme.

In the last two decades,both the Clinton and Bush administrations had often made serious efforts to engage the North Korean regime but persistent differences over the nuclear issue prevented forward movement in bilateral relations.

The question for Washington now is whether it should reach out to Pyongyang and explore the possibilities for a renewed engagement. In her reaction to Kim’s death,Clinton sounded positive in declaring US’s readiness to assist North Korea in ushering “a new era of peace,prosperity and lasting security” in northeast Asia.

But those in the administration and Congress focused on human rights and non-proliferation,would prefer a hard line towards the new regime and are bound to constrain Washington’s room for any creative diplomacy with Pyongyang at this delicate juncture.

Washington is also in close consultation with South Korea and Japan and will have to take their views into consideration in dealing with North Korea in the coming weeks.

Neighbourly sympathy

South Korea,whose relations with Pyongyang have deteriorated in recent years,has offered sympathy to the people of North Korea,but will not send an official condolence delegation.

The decision to focus on the “people” of North Korea rather than its government was a carefully calibrated decision to reconcile the conflicting domestic pressures while leaving the door ajar for a possible new approach to Pyongyang. Conservatives at home want a tough approach to North Korea,with which the South has been at war for so many decades. South Korean liberals on the other hand,are ready to cut much slack to the North.

With impending elections,the government in Seoul would not want to offend either section. Seoul would also not want to miss any potential political opening in Pyongyang after the death of Kim Jong-il,while bracing itself for a fresh round of tension amidst the political transition in the North.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi