And what these mean for India
Tectonic plates are shifting in the Indo-Pacific and nowhere is this more palpable than in the ongoing transformation in Myanmar. Internal changes of great significance are taking place in this country at a time when the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China has attained a sharper edge.
The US has been at the forefront of global criticism and isolation of the military junta of Myanmar ever since the landslide victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) in the 1990 elections was quashed,leading to a brutal repression of the pro-democracy movement. Sanctions were imposed and the country was famously described as being of very little strategic interest by Washington. Democracy and human rights became the prism through which the US-led West viewed Myanmar,leading to the entrenchment of China in the nation.
Now as the US pivots to the Indo-Pacific in a substantive manner,new equations are emerging that might just give New Delhi a critical role in the changing strategic realities.
In a landmark visit to Myanmar last year,US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signalled that US priorities are changing. Washington intends to normalise its ties with Naypyidaw by appointing a new ambassador after almost two decades and by helping Myanmar join the global mainstream. Myanmar has reciprocated at a number of levels. There has been a significant release of political prisoners,and easing of internet and press censorship. Aung San Suu Kyi and her party,the NLD,will be participating in April by-elections,signalling a gradual normalisation of the democratic process.
But what has surprised most observers is the way in which the Myanmar government has dealt with China in recent months. Chinas role in Myanmar is critical as its second-largest trading partner and biggest source of foreign investment. The armed forces of Myanmar depend largely on Chinese largesse. And the support of China has been crucial in diplomatic fora such as the UN Security Council.
The suspension of China-backed $3.6 billion Myitsone dam project,which was expected to provide crucial hydroelectric power to Chinas Yunnan province,has certainly upset Beijings calculus though it soon recognised that there is no point in upping the ante. Chinas growing economic role in Myanmar is not universally popular and historical memory about Chinas support to the Communist Party of Burma in the 1960s and 1970s remains a bone of contention. Most of Chinese investment in the resource sector has failed to produce positive externalities for Myanmar.
Myanmar is reaching out to other powers by promising political reform in order to balance Chinas preponderance. In many ways,the recent Western shift on Myanmar is recognition that Indias policy of engaging the military government of Myanmar is the way forward. The US may not be willing to say it in so many words but there is a tacit acceptance of the fact that its policy of isolating Myanmars junta had not really been working. For India,a greater Western involvement will lead to a significant curtailment of Chinese inroads into the region. Delhi,alone,is not enough to balance Chinas might in the country. But India will now have to push more vigorously to expand its economic presence in Myanmar before the West starts making its presence felt.
There are new opportunities for India to exploit. The Indian prime minister will be in Myanmar in May to attend the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) summit. Myanmars strategic and economic importance for India remains vital. It remains Indias gateway to the ASEAN states. India has signalled its interest in joining the mega project for the development of deep sea port and special economic zone in Dawei,Myanmar. This project has the potential to have a great impact on the regional economies as well as geopolitics.
Last week,Myanmar was part of a 14-nation joint naval exercise with India in the Bay of Bengal aimed at combating piracy and terrorism. The stability of the Malacca Straits remains a key concern for the economies of the Asia-Pacific,including India and Myanmar. China too remains worried about US naval presence in the region and views its trans-Burma Shwe pipeline as a possible solution to its Malacca dilemma. Beijings growing presence in Myanmar has facilitated Chinas entry into the Bay of Bengal.
Indias lack of a pro-active role in exploring and developing gas reserves in Myanmar has marginalised it. Indias economic involvement in Myanmar,largely through the public sector,has not been up to the mark with complaints about implementation delays and quality controls. Now the Indian private sector wants to move in as opportunities expand,but it will have to compete with Western companies.
Beijings influence is not going to disappear overnight. It will fight hard to retain its presence in a country of strategic importance. But Indias Myanmar policy has travelled a long way in just the past two years. And even Washington now seems to be pursuing a trajectory in Myanmar similar to Indias. It is for India to take cognisance of the rapid changes taking place in its periphery and find its own unique role and voice.
The writer teaches at Kings College,London,express@expressindia.com
