Opinion Still unwritten

Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai has said that the parties have never been so close to finalising the process. Along with the Maoists,two other major parties,the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML),are making similar claims. The reality is far from such declarations.

No major headway has been made on many issues,such as returning the property that the Maoists had captured during the years of insurgency (1996-2006) and constituting a truth and reconciliation commission to hear cases of human rights violation and another panel on settling contentious matters like the modality of federalism,electoral system and governance.

It is only on the issue of reintegrating and rehabilitating Maoist combatants that there has been some progress. The big three parties claim that they are close to finalising the number of Maoist combatants to be made part of the Nepal army and the compensation package for the rest. They say that 4,000-5,000 of the 19,000 combatants could be absorbed in the army,waiving educational qualifications and restrictions on age. The rest could be rehabilitated with a financial package of 4-7 lakh Nepali rupees.

But Prime Minister Bhattarai is in a tight spot. He is still perceived as a doer by many at home and abroad,and he knows that if does not live up to that image,it will cost him his job. Since it is difficult to sort out all outstanding matters by November 30,he is trying to gain some political mileage by sending out the message that once the integration of Maoists into the army is effected,it will be easier to come to an understanding on other issues.

To this end,he is reaching out to political friends and foes. He is cajoling and persuading his rivals in the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (UCPN-M),especially senior vice-chairman Mohan Vaidya ‘Kiran’,to not bring up the Bilateral Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement (BIPPA),that he had signed with India,at the party’s central committee meeting slated for November 3. Bhattarai would,instead,like to settle it in the smaller standing committee. At the same time,he is also approaching party chief Prachanda to take the dissidents to task.

The BIPPA,many believe in Kathmandu,was signed on Bhattarai’s insistence,despite Delhi’s warning that the agreement alone would not encourage foreign investment,including from India,unless the overall situation in Nepal improved.

At a time when the Vaidya group was accusing Bhattarai of having compromised on the national interest,Prachanda gave another blow to Bhattarai by saying that he had asked the prime minister to sign the BIPPA only if the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement was signed along with it. The 145-member central committee,if allowed to debate the BIPPA,is sure to use Prachanda’s statement as ammunition against Bhattarai. Therefore,for his survival,Bhattarai needs to sort out the integration issue before November 3,so that India and other outside players could throw their weight behind the government. That may ensure Bhattarai’s continuance as prime minister.

But internal politics could still make it difficult for him. Prachanda is reportedly trying to garner the support of the hardline faction in the party. He is also said to have sent feelers to the Nepal Congress leader Sushil Koirala that if the peace process and the drafting of the constitution are completed under Prachanda’s leadership,Koirala may head the government that would conduct elections to the parliament under the new constitution.

It will be a tightrope walk for Bhattarai.

yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com