Opinion The great Game Folio

The American public,which has shelled out nearly US$18 billion to Pakistan since the war began at the end 2001,might have been in the dark about Pakistan helping those killing the soldiers of the United States in Afghanistan. The policy establishment in Washington,however,was not. Rawalpindi knows that Washington is fully aware that Pakistan’s state agencies like the ISI and non-state assets like the Taliban and the Haqqani network are the ones that have kept the insurgency alive in Afghanistan and have made the American task difficult if not impossible.

Even more important Rawalpindi knows that Washington has no choice but keep the Pak army in good humour. It is no surprise,then,every time Pakistan’s role is creating trouble for the United States is revealed,Washington sends a bigger cheque to Rawalpindi.

Why is it that the US,the mightiest military power the world has ever seen,seems so helpless in dealing with Rawalpindi and so meekly submits to the political blackmail of the Pakistani army? The simplest explanation has to do with geography. Whatever the US wants to do in Afghanistan,it needs the cooperation of the Pak army.

Take for example the logistics of American military operations in Afghanistan. Most American supplies of food,fuel and ammunition to its troops have to go through Pakistan’s territory. The alternative route through Iran is not feasible politically. A northern route through the Caucasus and Central Asia is too long and remains to be developed.

When it comes to intelligence,ISI’s knowledge of the terrain and tribes in the borderlands of Afghanistan and Pakistan is unmatched. For more than three decades,the ISI has been actively promoting Pakistan’s political agenda across the Durand Line. Having invested so much in the creation and promotion of the Taliban,the ISI and the Pak army have had no reason to abandon its instrument of influence in Afghanistan just because the US is having a fight with al Qaeda.

From the moment the US took charge of Kabul at the end of 2001,its officers on the ground repeatedly pointed to Pakistan’s ambiguities towards American policy objectives in Afghanistan. But Washington would have none of it. Its emphasis was on praising Pakistan for its cooperation and enticing it to do more. No wonder then that the vicious circle that the US found itself in Afghanistan,got edgier with every passing year.

As the Taliban regrouped and began to challenge the international forces during the last few years,the US stepped up its military presence in Afghanistan. A larger military presence meant greater dependence on the Pakistani army and the willingness to raise the price for cooperation.

Army’s Power

When President Barack Obama was sworn in as president of the United States,many in the Congress did trace the source of the problem to the Pakistani army. With the Democrats in charge of the two houses of Congress,there was a serious attempt at leveraging massive American aid to Pakistan to promote civilian control over the military. As the contours of the Kerry-Lugar legislation came into view during 2009,the Pak army and the ISI mounted such a public offensive against it that the Democrats have had to quickly limit their feeble attempt.

Two years after the general elections in which Pakistanis voted with their feet against an unpopular military ruler,general Pervez Musharraf,the army has re-emerged as the arbiter of the nation’s domestic politics and foreign policy. That in fact is the meaning of the recent three year extension to Ashfaq Pervez Kayani who succeeded Musharraf as army chief in 2007.

Messy Retreat

The principal effect of the leaks will not be on US-Pak relations,but on American public support for the war. Most liberals and an increasing number of conservatives will draw the conclusion that the war in Afghanistan is not winnable and even if it can be turned around,the costs are not worth it.

No military retreat is ever well-organised. When large democracies have to do it,their domestic politics make it messier. The war leaks have just set the stage in Washington for much policy confusion and many a political flip-flop on Afghanistan.

raja.mohan@expressindia.com