The results of the assembly elections point to seismic and under-discussed shifts in the voters’ consideration along two critical axes — the role of caste in determining voting choices and how it was strategically interwoven with the nature of benefits promised and delivered to the electorate.
Caste-based parties thrived in an age when their intermediation for availing benefits was essential. Beyond the pull of baradari (fraternity), caste politics was about reaching out to one’s caste network to get work done from the government. This meant that identification with the caste and deploying this identity for utilitarian purposes happened in unison. The rise of the digital delivery flywheel has significantly altered this equation. An array of benefits is now delivered via the JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile) trinity.
This mechanism does away with reliance on caste leaders as brokers for benefits. The maturity of the JAM “rails” and the relative diminution of caste-based voting considerations have been concomitant. This has translated into a political hegemony for incumbents who are capable of delivering benefits consistently. The labharthi varg (beneficiary segment) then is a multi-caste cluster, seen as endorsing the dole culture. Religious identity is best viewed as a catalyst, not a determinant, of voting choices. This dismantling of the caste-based patronage economy changes caste’s role from being a voting choice determinant to solely being a social identifier. The ramifications of this transformation are evident most glaringly in the diminishing of the BSP in UP.
It is not that the BJP doesn’t employ caste. The logic of caste politics in its grand scheme of things survives if Hindus feel secure. The party endorses caste politics as an intrinsic part of Hindu identity, but they appeal to all castes by portraying themselves as the custodian of religion and welfare which culminates in the idea of Ram Rajya. The welfare state is integrated as the nucleus of their strategy, making JAM vital.
It is equally important to understand the nature of benefits being promised and delivered. The “double-engine” rhetoric solidifies the BJP’s claim and its efficiency as a sponsor of a class of benefits, which are simple (and tangible). Pensions, scholarships, subsidies, foodgrains, vaccinations etc. all belong to this category. The delivery of these benefits is also scalable thanks to the “India Stack” architecture (spanning identification, payments and connectivity) that is now coming to fruition. This trend also explains the prime minister’s claim that wherever women vote in greater numbers than men, the BJP tends to do well. Women are more likely to value the implications of benefits for the family and hence endorse the party that delivers them.
Known to not leave anything to chance, the BJP does not simply rely on the mathematics of delivery but sandwiches it between the chemistry of nationalism and culturalism. This serves another purpose: To neutralise the yearning for complex (and intangible) benefits such as jobs, education and healthcare which require greater and more systematic transformation.
The AAP, with its planks of mohalla (neighbourhood) clinics and school upgrades, seeks to occupy this very space of/for complex benefits. For its part, the party turned a handicap into an advantage, since the nature of Delhi’s circumscribed government model meant that, without the Centre’s “double-engine” backing, it could do little more than refurbish schools and healthcare for the poor. Its handsome win in Punjab signals that it is a viable alternative for voters who are seeking these intangible but long-term, consequential changes.
The short-term political contest between these models of instant gratification via simple benefits and long-term advantages through complex benefits is likely to heat up given that these two key and growing political forces have earned their stripes in different realms. To counter the AAP’s strategy, we may see the BJP double down on avenues like health insurance, unemployment benefits and school vouchers. These ploys will not, however, bolster capacities in these domains.
These trends give rise to at least three important questions. First, where does this change in the landscape leave young voters? Their participation in heartland states (vis-à-vis their turnout proportion in the last round) is decreasing. This signals hopelessness with the democratic process wherein the beneficiaries are more likely to be older voters. Second, where does this benefit-led strategy leave caste-based parties whose share of votes has been on a precipitous decline since the BJP’s rise to power? The need for the caste network to intervene has shrunk rapidly. The BJP’s efficient delivery of tangibles and the delivery of at least the promise of good and accessible education and healthcare by AAP, could unsettle the salience of caste politics even further. Third, where does this leave the long tail of parties — regional and national — without demonstrable success in benefits delivery? The Congress’ decline is particularly ironic since its rights-based framework for benefits has now been squeezed out by the command and control delivery apparatus of the BJP.
For all parties, there still exists a wide and important window of opportunity in the form of job creation, which requires imaginative lateral thinking — something none of the existing political players has demonstrated. Democratic contestation for young Indians will play out in that space and political agents who can find convincing narratives around employment can flourish. As the agrarian economy becomes less salient, and urbanism and urban aspirations spread, there has been no better time for renewed political entrepreneurship spurred by the objective of generating employment prospects. Not only is it a noble course of action, it is the surest shot at sustainable political supremacy.
This column first appeared in the print edition on March 17, 2022 under the title ‘How JAM cut the caste vote’. The writer is founder, WalkIn. He previously co-founded, FourthLion Technologies, a political campaign planner
