Opinion Express View: Concerns over power shortage call for a careful review of India’s energy mix

CCoal production in the country has now crossed a record 1 billion tonnes — this is in line with the action plan of the coal ministry, which had targeted an output of 1,080 million tonnes in 2024-25. Data from the ministry shows that coal production touched 997.83 million tonnes in 2023-24, up 11.7 per cent from 893.19 million tonnes in 2022-23. A substantial part of this is accounted for by Coal India and its subsidiaries. Production by Coal India had increased to 773.81 million tonnes in 2023-24, up from 703.20 million tonnes in 2022-23. Despite this record production, however, those managing the electricity grids are worried as summer approaches.

The problem, in part, stems from how India’s energy mix has evolved in the recent past. Thermal power dominates India’s baseload power capacity. In recent years, however, additions to thermal capacity have been muted — the installed capacity rose from 230 GW in 2019-20 to just 243 GW in 2023-24. Much of the increase in installed power capacity during these years has occurred in the renewables space — the installed capacity rose from 88.26 GW in 2019-20 to 143.64 GW in 2023-24 (renewables include solar, wind, bio-power and small hydro power). However, despite this, renewables still account for just 13 per cent of all-India energy generation. During the summer months, the problem is acute as solar generation tapers off by the evenings while household demand remains high and storage capacities are limited. In order to fill this gap, baseload capacities are stepped up, but in the absence of an expansion in such capacities, there is a shortfall in supply. As per reports, electricity demand is expected to peak at 273 GW in June 2025 compared to a minimum of 135 GW in December-January. “Shortages are more likely to occur during non-solar hours in May, June, July and August 2025,” says a report from the National Load Despatch Centre with the months of May and June identified as “high-risk months for shortages”.

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The National Electricity Plan (2017-22) had focused more on ramping up renewable capacities in the country. As per its assessment, the expected renewable (solar, wind, biomass and small hydro) capacity addition between 2017 and 2022 was pegged at 117.7 GW. However, the concerns that are being raised call for carrying out a more careful assessment of the country’s energy mix — thermal, nuclear and renewables. As the economy continues its forward march, as electricity demand continues to rise — peak electricity demand is expected to touch 298.7 GW by 2026-27 — policy must ensure a steady supply of power.