Opinion How to charm a dragon

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will head to Beijing this May, hoping to charm the dragon whose stare Indians have feared ever since the catastrophic war of 1962. The stakes are high — perhaps more than ever. China has emerged as India’s largest trading partner, with two-way commerce touching $70 billion last year. It has committed to $20 billion in investments, and partnering in key projects like the modernisation of the railways. Yet, the relationship has also become more fraught than ever before. Last autumn, even as President Xi Jinping visited New Delhi, the two countries’ troops were facing off on the Line of Actual Control  (LAC) in Chumar. Both countries are expanding their military capacities along their disputed frontiers. In principle, New Delhi and Beijing have a shared roadmap to resolve their border disputes. The reality, though, is that China is unwilling to write off its claims to Arunachal Pradesh, despite an agreement that populated areas will not be exchanged in a final settlement. Indian leaders, in turn, will likely face domestic problems in conceding territories China gained in 1962. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj has said India will bring “out of the box” ideas to the table — but just what those might be is still unclear.
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The border dispute is but a symptom of a deeper problem. From Beijing’s corner, its borders appear surrounded by hostile states, egged on by the US, ganging together to deny it its rightful place. India’s deepening security cooperation with the US, as well as with Japan, Vietnam and Australia, has fuelled those fears. Beijing sees its use of coercion as an essential means of ensuring the neutrality of states on its periphery. The world looks very different, though, through India’s spectacles. The growing tensions on the LAC — and the wider demonstrations of assertiveness along its eastern seaboard — have led India to fear that military muscle-flexing will inexorably follow China’s acquisition of economic might.

Both countries have to find ways to address these real insecurities, and build a functional relationship. Home to billions who aspire to a better life, neither can afford a military crisis. Yet, history teaches us that economic ties alone are no guarantee against conflict. Last autumn, ahead of President Xi’s visit, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval had spoken of an impending “orbital jump” in China-India ties. Handled wrong, the bilateral relationship could just as easily nosedive.