Opinion Lessons from assembly poll results: Modi juggernaut will continue to march forward
In 2024, INDIA needs more than its anti-Modi adhesive to hold the alliance together
Dehradun: Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the inauguration of the Uttarakhand Global Investors Summit 2023, in Dehradun, Friday, Dec. 8, 2023. (PTI Photo) 
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The BJP’s resounding victory in the recent state elections has once again demonstrated Narendra Modi’s magnetism and how indispensable he is to his party. There is no gainsaying the fact that the BJP’s victory is Modi’s and his alone. As far as one can see, the Modi juggernaut will continue to march forward. His hold on his party as well as on the people of India is undeniable. The people of India trust him to do the right thing by them. The other parties — one should not dignify them by calling them Opposition parties — have failed miserably in shaking this confidence in Modi.
In every election, the media, especially visual media, have a rollicking time. The anchors love to preside over panels consisting of “experts”, “political observers”, self-proclaimed psephologists, as well as representatives of political parties. It is inexplicable as to why the political parties are invited to these verbal extravaganzas; do the anchors expect them to express pessimistic views about their parties’ prospects? As for the experts, they will hold forth on proffering “expert” explanations about why the BJP won and why the other parties, especially the Indian National Congress fared so disastrously. Their favourite explanation is: “Revolving doors”. If the BJP won a state the previous time, Congress must win this time. The reason for this? Anti-incumbency, of course. There will be learned presentations about the percentage of vote share. It will be pointed out, with great profundity, that the share of Congress has not diminished, thereby insisting that Congress can, and perhaps will, regain power next time. In support of this analysis, it will be pointed out that in many constituencies, the BJP won with the narrowest margin; all Congress needs to do is make a little extra effort to win those constituencies next time. The Muslim factor will be brought up. In view of Modi’s approach to the Muslim community, the BJP has obviously decided that the Muslims will not vote for them and, hence, have largely stopped worrying about the Muslim vote. “Leave it for others” seems to be their attitude. In any case, there is no such thing as a solid Muslim vote; Muslims have their own divisions and theirs is a fractured vote.
These talkathons have ceased to even be entertainment. Time and again, the exit pollsters have been proved wrong. The recent elections ought to, once and for all, drive a nail in the coffin of the exit poll industry.
So, where have the state elections left the country? The answer is “exactly where it was”. Some may say “worse than where it was before”. These state elections have been often described as “semi-finals” before the general elections. Unlike the Indian cricket team, we can be sure that the team that has won this semi-final will definitely win the final next year.
Democracy needs at least two more or less equal parties, equal in terms of popular support, with a reasonably sensible agenda, a programme of work, some ideology and, of course, funds. We don’t have that in India. The programme cannot simply be negative in the sense of defeating the existing leadership of the ruling party. Every expert insists that caste is an important factor in our elections. They may be right, caste will remain a factor in India, but perhaps it is no longer the dominant factor governing people’s choices.
People are smart. They watch and assess the performance of the government in power. The delivery of development work is very important. If cooking gas is made available to the poor at a subsidised price, if toilets are built in rural areas, even if not fully functional, if houses are built for the poor — all these factors will be considered in people’s decision-making. The plank of secularism does not carry conviction, particularly when most among those preaching secularism are closet believers in the ruling party’s ideology.
The new conglomerate, INDIA, was supposed to be the alternative to the BJP. The idea behind its formation appeared to be reasonable, but ab initio, it did not inspire confidence, not only among the people at large but even among its constituent parties. It was built on a weak foundation, on wishful thinking. It was, and is, unrealistic to expect so many parties, with their separate agendas and vote support, with some of them well entrenched in their respective regions, to act selflessly. Indeed, some of them, professing secularism, had joined hands with the avowedly non-secular BJP in their states for the sake of forming governments.
Nonetheless, the state elections were a good opportunity for INDIA to test how realistic the idea was. From all accounts, it seems that Congress refused seat sharing with others. It believed that it was strong enough to contest by itself. Well, it was not. Its decision to go alone has further diluted whatever confidence its constituents had in the concept. INDIA had to be treated as a neonatal baby, in need of an incubator, which the recent elections could have provided — this is the saga of an opportunity missed.
And in the most unlikely event of INDIA getting the better of the BJP at the next general election, its in-built contradictions will surface. Who will become the prime minister? How many ministries for which parties? So on. In other words, the anti-Modi adhesive will not be adequate to hold the alliance together.
Congress will engage in introspection and convene “chintan shivir”. Going by the previous chintan shivirs, nothing will change after the next one. Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose. Unless Congress’ count goes in triple figures after the next election, it should seriously ponder its future. Today’s world is vastly different from yesterday’s and will be different tomorrow. The younger generation wants to be involved and given the reins of government. There is no reason why the younger generation in India cannot be entrusted with the responsibility of governing. The time may have come for a new party, a party with a practical and positive agenda, a party with a leadership which the people will regard as being non-corrupt, with a clean image, an image which Rajiv Gandhi had when he ascended the prime minister’s chair. A party in earnest to reduce poverty and to modernise, again an image that Rajiv Gandhi projected. I refuse to believe that India does not have such individuals.
The writer was India’s Permanent Representative to the UN
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