Opinion Dead ends in Pakistan

Pratap Bhanu Mehta | Swaraj Aur Samvidhan<br> Pakistan's agreement with the Taliban in the Swat region may turn out to be a catastrophically momentous event in South Asia.

New DelhiFebruary 21, 2009 04:27 PM IST First published on: Feb 21, 2009 at 04:27 PM IST

Pakistan’s agreement with the Taliban in the Swat region may turn out to be a catastrophically momentous event in South Asia. Formally,the agreement is,as the United States bloodlessly put it,within the constitutional framework of Pakistan. But it is a sign of the unravelling of Pakistan in more ways than one. It signals the fact that the Pakistani state is unwilling or unable to fight the Taliban,and is willing to cease control. It signals the end of whatever coherence was left to Jinnah’s idea of Pakistan – a Muslim,but modernist country. It will foment even more secessionist tendencies in Pakistan,and we can only sit on the sidelines and watch with bated breath what the instability in Pakistan will mean for us.

Some would argue that this agreement is merely a tactical retreat,one that will allow Pakistan to concentrate its forces on other more important battles in Waziristan. But there are reasons to suggest this will not be the case. Such a massive ideological victory will embolden the Taliban and radical elements elsewhere. The United States’ tacit endorsement also sends out the signal that once again the United States is interested only in its own objectives,not the well being of Pakistan. In fact,the tragedy has been that the United States has for almost two decades,defined Pakistan’s well being in terms of its own strategic objectives. Even now it seems to be saying: what happens to the idea of Pakistan is not our concern; our only concern is our ill-defined objectives. This is also a form of national humiliation for Pakistan. And the one thing we know is that national humiliation only strengthens the hand of hardliners inside Pakistan.

Finally,the big unknown is this: To what extent has the military been Talibanized inside Pakistan? Arguments have been made to the effect that there is a generational shift within the Army. The post-Zia recruits have a very different and more militant ideological cast,and they are now beginning to call the shots. If that is indeed the case,Pakistan’s slide would seem irreversible.

The only strategy the United States has for the region is more troops and deeper involvement. The war against terror,and US counter-insurgency tactics,has now produced a monster of a war in return. But all the policies coming out of the Obama administration suggest this trend will continue. Now,we have to reckon with two propositions.

First,no American military strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan will work. How do we come to terms with this reality?

Second,American involvement only exacerbates the vicious political cycle in the region. The more America gets involved,the more counter-reaction there is. How do we break out of this vicious cycle?

India will have to play the situation very carefully,both in relation to the US and Pakistan. The US wants to enlist us in the war in Afghanistan,and side with the Pakistani state in its war against the Taliban. Both are slippery objectives. At one level it seems like an innocent statement that India and the US have,along with the Pakistani state,joint interests against the Taliban. In one sense we are all victims of terrorism. And we have to brace ourselves for worse to come in the next few months. But it does not follow from this fact that we should get sucked into the way Americans define this war. On Pakistan,we frankly don’t have many options but to show restraint. This is not a battle we can win militarily,although we have to be prepared for all eventualities.

Frankly,the only slim hope is for Pakistan to sort out its own problems. This is a very long shot. How a country can put itself in such a denial mode is beyond comprehension. But we will be living in a fool’s paradise if we think the Americans,or we,can. Outside intervention only produces Balkanization. And the Balkanization of Pakistan it its current form will have even more devastating consequences for us. The only thing we can do,as the Americans haven’t,is to ensure that the dynamics of conflict and protest within Pakistan don’t get short circuited by pressures from the outside. Pakistan has to recognize that it has sown the seeds of its own disintegration. The idea of Pakistan was always fraught with deep contradiction. The ultimate irony is that India can only hope that Jinnah’s vision now triumphs over the catastrophic Talibanization of South Asian Islam.