The INDIA alliance must strengthen, not weaken, and certainly not fade away. Samajwadi Party (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav expressed these sentiments with feeling during a recent conversation with me. Akhilesh struck a note very different from the voices heard in recent days that pronounced the bloc dead for all practical purposes. After the Delhi elections, more than the future of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), it is the continuation of the bloc of Opposition parties that has become the subject of an animated discussion. The first shot was fired by none other than Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah who took aim at the Congress and the AAP as the Delhi results came in, saying, “Aur lado aapas mein (keep on fighting).” Except for the DMK, all major regional parties in INDIA supported AAP in Delhi, where a united INDIA alliance may have just made it. It now seems that Akhilesh is trying to salvage the bloc. “UP mein karenge … We will have a tie-up with the Congress in UP (in 2027),” he said. There are 403 Assembly seats in UP and “we can share seats with the Congress and have some to spare for others also”, said the SP chief, adding that the only criteria “has to be winnability and who is best placed to defeat the BJP”. Amid the regional parties’ increasing disaffection with the Congress, there is also a growing opinion in the grand old party that it had sacrificed enough or had been taken for granted by its regional allies for too long. This line of thinking advocates that the Congress must revive first before going in for alliances that, according to it, have weakened the party in the long run. Alluding to the Congress’s desire to “revive first”, Akhilesh said, “Pehle jeetein toh sahi, jeetenge toh party bhi ban hi jayegi (let them win, if they win the party will get rebuilt in time).” Complex relationship with allies It was the SP’s alliance with the Congress in UP and the performance of the “two boys (Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi)” that humbled the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, bringing it way below the majority figure to 242 seats, even as the Congress tally rose to 99, sparking hopes of a revival. Theoretically speaking, the Congress does not need a platform such as INDIA to bilaterally fashion alliances in the states: with the RJD in Bihar, where elections are due year-end, with the JMM in Jharkhand, or with the DMK in Tamil Nadu that goes to polls in 2026, and with the SP in UP. The party has a real problem with Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, which too goes to the polls next year. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) did not ally with the Congress even in the Lok Sabha elections and now, continuing her anti-Congress stance, Banerjee told her MLAs last week that the party would go solo in 2026 instead of building up an alliance at its own expense. Before this, Banerjee had pitched for the leadership of the alliance. While most of the regional satraps reacted favourably to the idea, the Congress did not respond to it. The Congress, by all accounts, is also not prepared to cede any ground to the TMC and Rahul Gandhi, according to sources in the party, is planning to hold a yatra in West Bengal soon. The Congress also has a complex relationship with the Left, whom it opposes in Kerala but allies with in West Bengal. Kerala, too, is scheduled to go to polls next year along with West Bengal, complicating the equations for the INDIA alliance. The Congress’s relationship with the AAP is even trickier. According to the comments from within the party, it was more keen to see Arvind Kejriwal lose than defeat the BJP. After the AAP lost Delhi, the Congress is eyeing Punjab, with its state leaders claiming that 32 MLAs of Kejriwal’s party were in touch with it. The Congress’s problems with the AAP go back to the days of the Anna Hazare-led “India Against Corruption” movement that created the conditions responsible for the UPA’s rout and Narendra Modi’s rise in 2014. Delhi Congress leaders have all along chafed at losing their base in the national capital to the AAP. However, the way things turned out in Delhi, both lost out. What the Opposition needs to do A classic dilemma that most regional parties now face is that they are more comfortable dealing with a weak rather than a strong Congress. The belief that the Congress and these regional parties will gain or lose only at each others’ expense is only a half-truth and underlines their failure to tap into the BJP’s base. The Congress’s overall inability to vanquish the BJP in the Hindi heartland, where it is pitted directly against the ruling party, also underscores the need for it to rebuild its organisational base, irrespective of alliances. The Opposition needs to fashion a narrative that sets out a vision for India, with an appeal to all, including the large mass of Hindus. Sometimes, the choices politicians make can be confusing for the voter. She may find it difficult to understand how Opposition parties can come together in the Lok Sabha elections but fight each other bitterly in an Assembly election only weeks later. Win or lose, that takes away from the INDIA alliance’s credibility in the eyes of the voters. Akhilesh Yadav may be right when he says that the Opposition is more likely to succeed when meeting the challenges that lie ahead unitedly than as individual entities. If the primary goal of the Congress, and indeed of the regional parties, is the defeat of the BJP, it will entail at least a willingness to give and take on the part of both. (Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide)
