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Journalism of Courage
The relatively low turnout of 26 per cent in Anantnag is threatening to derail the electoral calculations in the Valley with parties scared of the consequent distortion in the outcome. Peoples Democratic Party,a favourite in South Kashmir constituency,is likely to find the going tough with some major pockets of National Conference and Congress base witnessing a marginally higher turnout.
Things are likely to go awry in Srinagar and Kupwara too where voting will follow on May 7 and May 13 respectively. In Srinagar a likely boycott will put the chances of NC candidate Dr Farooq Abdullah under severe strain. Abdullah is pitted against PDP candidate Maulvi Abbas Ansari,who has a massive following in the Shia dominated areas of Srinagar and the neighbouring Budgam district.
This is a votebank which isnt prone to boycott politics. And if they vote en masse and against NC,it is likely to seal the fate of Abdullah. However,in more favourable circumstances,Abdullah is expected to scrape through.
Making things a little tougher for Abdullah would be his own sister Khalida Abdullah,who is contesting against him from the constituency. Khalida is the chairperson of the Awami National Conference founded by her husband,the former J-K chief minister G M Shah. However,except for some faith among the old loyalists,Khalida has little by way of a substantial vote-bank to take on Abdullah. Khalidas appeal the voters is as the daughter of the legendary NC leader Sheikh Muhammad Abdullah.
However,it is in Kupwara the constituency staging the most interesting electoral battle with a lone separatist contesting that the impact of the dismal polling in Anantnag would be most watched.
How will a low turnout in the constituency impact the chances of Sajad Lone,the Valley’s first major separatist fighting his first poll and derivatively the battle of his political survival? Lone is contesting against PDP and NC stalwarts,with long political careers. PDPs Dilawar Mir exercises political influence over a substantial part of the constituency and is likely to draw votes from the other PDP-sympathetic areas,particularly Shia votes of Pattan. Similarly,the NC leader Sharif Din Shariqs support base equals that of Lone in his stronghold in Kupwara district.
It is here that a low turnout is expected to distort the electoral calculations. Would all of Lones loyal base turnout? How would a part of his support base disgruntled by his decision to fight election vote? Or of the three leaders whose supporters are more prone to boycott? Observers in Kashmir point to those of Lone. But for now the fingers are strictly crossed and the triangular contest still looks evenly split.
