Less than nine months to the general elections, Bihar’s caste survey released Monday comes amid an increasing chorus of caste as a factor of political empowerment and representation — across the political divide. The Opposition has made the caste census and Other Backward Classes (OBC) sub-quota in the women’s reservation law a major issue. The Congress, too, has thrown its weight behind the demand with Rahul Gandhi saying that he “regretted 100%” that the UPA did not include the OBC sub-quota in the women’s Bill of 2008. Barely days ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke of his OBC identity to hit back at the Congress and alleged that by abusing him regularly the Opposition party was abusing all OBCs. Now that the Bihar caste survey numbers are out, the BJP will have to address this issue more sharply. Asked about the Bihar caste data during his press conference on West Bengal, Union Minister Anurag Thakur said it was an issue that requires comprehensive study and added that the BJP would soon hold a press conference on the matter. The headline data in the Bihar survey is that the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) form the biggest social group, at 36.01%. Add OBCs at 27.12%, and together the backward classes make up over 63% of the population, marking an over 10% jump from their estimated numbers in the 1931 caste census. The other big number is of the Scheduled Castes, at 19.65%. The last count of the SCs, in the 2011 Census, put their number at 16% of the state's population. Some key takeaways: 🔴 The ruling RJD and JD(U) are likely to push for increased OBC/EBC quota and announce EBC-centric policies and programmes. State politics will gravitate around EBCs, which otherwise have no one leader and are split between parties. 🔴 Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who does not have the backing of a significant social group, has nursed a Mahadalit constituency (comprising 21 SC groups, minus Paswan). The JD(U) supremo now has more cause to focus on the segment, hoping to beat the BJP and Congress in the tussle for the Dalit vote. 🔴 The survey cements Yadavs as the single largest group, at 14.26% of the population. With Muslim percentage counted at 17.7%, Lalu Prasad's core Muslim-Yadav (MY) constituency stands at over 32%. This underlines the MY plank as the one to beat, with Nitish's core constituency of the OBC Kurmi and Koeri group (Luv and Kush) at 2.87% and 4.21% respectively. If EBC Dhanuk (2.13%) are clubbed with this, his 10% loyal vote bank still falls far short. 🔴 With the caste survey putting the general category, or “upper castes”, at 15.52% – just slightly higher than expected – there were no great surprises for the BJP, which commands their loyalty. Of the upper castes, Brahmins are at 3.67%, followed closely by the Rajputs at 3.45% and the Bhumihars at 2.89%. 🔴 Among SCs, Ravidas and Dusadh (Paswan), with allied castes of Darahi and Dhari, are almost evenly matched, with respective populations of 5.21% and 5.31%. While Paswan leader Chirag Paswan will take heart from the data, former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi now has a number to his Mushahar clout: 3.08%. All this comes when the BJP has made significant gains among EBCs in large parts of north India. Since 1993, when an alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh trumped the BJP despite a Ram Mandir wave, there was a perception that caste is the counter to Hindutva. However, this was shaken around 2014 when the BJP, with its wide outreach among the backward castes, struck deep roots within these social blocs. Aware that the so-called upper castes may no longer think of any option apart from the BJP, the Opposition is again focusing on the revival of the Mandal discourse. “Right now, the data mentions only the population of each caste. The Bihar government had also talked about an economic survey of each caste and category but those figures have not been released,” former Union Minister and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party chief Upendra Kushwaha told The Indian Express. “Only if we have data about numbers as well as economic status, representation in government jobs, etc, can schemes be initiated for those who are more deprived.”
