Bihar poll campaign: from development politics to caste equations

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Of course it was aware of the formidable social combination stitched together by Lalu, Nitish and the Congress and had worked out its own social arithmetic with Ram Vilas Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha. Bihar looked set for an epic political battle, one that would ask important questions of those in the fray: would Modi retain his old magic, would the public accept Nitish with Lalu, would it be a battle of “my development versus your development” or would caste be at work in Bihar that which up to now had always voted by caste.

One slip of tongue from PM Modi — that there was something wrong with the DNA of Nitish – gave Nitish his first major opening. Even though the PM corrected it to “loktantra ke DNA me gadbadi”, Nitish linked it to Bihar pride and played it up in his speeches.

However, the crowds got bigger at Modi meetings: the Gaya rally looked like a sea of humanity. There were at least 20,000 people on the roads and peripheral areas because they were not able to get into the grounds. From Gaya to Ara – where he announced the Rs 1.25 lakh crore special package, it was like magic for Modi. The subsequent Saharsa rally was also good but it was the Bhagalpur rally that marked the crescendo for Modi: enthusiastic youth perched on bamboo joints to get a a glimpse of the PM.

In between, Nitish kept countering data with data, calling BJP’s data “fudged” and unleashing his own. It was development politics at its best. Modi kept his bureaucrats and data team busy through August and early September to counter Nitish’ data and provide ammunition for his posers. Nitish meticulously worked out how Rs 1.08 lakh cr of the Rs 1.25 lakh cr special package was compilation of old and unrealised projects. He came out with his own seven resolutions for Bihar saying the state could take care of itself. There were jibes and counter jibes on the federal structure. Nitish looked better prepared with data than the PM.

Meanwhile, Lalu Prasad had been struggling with an agenda for his speeches. The best that he could do was to demand that the Centre release caste census data — but development politics maintained the upper hand.

September changed everything.

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s statement on the need to review the reservation policy changed the course and the template of the election: it went from a development-focussed election to a caste election. Modi’s absence from Bihar for a month, his belated clarification on Bhagwat’s remarks, the Dadri incident and the ‘meat’ controversy gave Nitish and Lalu the openings they had looked for. Now they proclaimed that the BJP wanted to “eliminate reservation”. The BJP was caught unawares.

The battle looked more evenly poised.

Modi arrested the drift with his Banka rally in the first week of October. He followed it with a surge of rallies, crossing the 25-rally mark – a record of sorts by any PM in an assembly election. He continued to attract the crowds till his last rally at Darbhanga on Monday.

His opponents were dismissive of his crowd pull, calling it a reflection of the BJP’s sound crowd management. Modi delivered his final punch by alleging that Nitish, Lalu and the Congress had been out to take away the reservation quota of the Dalits and OBCs and give it to ‘another community’. The Grand Alliance gave a veiled clarification. The BJP stepped up pressure by publishing reservation ads which was frowned upon by the EC.

PM patted himself on the back for silencing his opponents on reservation. His final punch was an allegation that Nitish and Lalu were “protecting terrorists”. Nitish, however, was unprovoked and stuck to his template – his record and the goodwill of the people.

Political pundits have begun to count the seats for each camp. The youth and EBC still look to be the deciders or the spoilers. There’s also the high turnout of women throughout all phases to be considered