10 seats, 11 candidates: In UP, RS poll heat rises as BJP, SP join numbers war

Compounding SP’s troubles, its ally Apna Dal (Kamervadi) leader Pallavi Patel said she won't vote in the polls, citing SP's 'negligence of PDA communities'

The BJP and SP are bracing for a fight in the Uttar Pradesh Rajya Sabha polls. (Facebook)

Uttar Pradesh is headed for the February 27 Rajya Sabha elections to fill the 10 seats that are falling vacant, with the two largest parties, the ruling BJP and the principal Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP), appearing to have enough members in the state Assembly to elect seven and three Rajya Sabha MPs, respectively.

However, with the BJP fielding its eighth candidate, the fight for the 10th Rajya Sabha seat in the state has become an interesting one, with both the BJP and the SP looking to edge out each other in the polls.

On Thursday, when the BJP’s Sanjay Seth filed his nomination for the Upper House polls, he became the party’s eighth candidate to do so.

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Seth was previously elected to the Rajya Sabha as an SP candidate in June 2016. He later switched to the BJP fold.

The BJP has also nominated former Union minister R P N Singh, ex-MP Chaudhary Tejveer Singh, state party general secretary Amarpal Maurya, former state minister Sangeeta Balwant, party spokesperson Sudhanshu Trivedi, former MLA Sadhna Singh and former Agra mayor Naveen Jain for the Upper House.

The SP’s Rajya Sabha list includes senior leader and actor Jaya Bachchan, Dalit leader Ramji Lal Suman and former state chief secretary Alok Ranjan.

If the BJP had not nominated an eighth candidate, the state would not have needed an election as all 10 candidates would have won unopposed. But with 11 candidates in the fray, the polls will take place to determine the 10 winners.

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How do numbers stack up?

Currently, the state has 399 MLAs with four seats in the Assembly being vacant. The Rajya Sabha MPs are elected by a system of proportional representation, according to which each candidate in UP will require at least 37 votes to win.

The BJP has 252 MLAs and its NDA allies account for 34 MLAs – 13 from the Apna Dal, nine from the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), six each from the NISHAD Party and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP). The Jansatta Dal Loktantrik, which has two MLAs and is headed by strongman politician Raja Bhaiya, is also expected to vote in favour of the BJP.

If the BJP manages to get all the 36 votes from these parties, its total number of votes will reach 288. However, for its eight candidates to get elected, the BJP will need 296 votes (37 multiplied by 8). As things stand, the BJP will fall short by eight votes.

If the two Congress MLAs vote for the SP candidates, taking the SP’s tally to 110, the latter will still fall short by one vote to reach the required 111 votes (37 multiplied by 3) to get its three candidates elected.

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Compounding the SP’s troubles, Pallavi Patel, the leader of the Apna Dal (Kamervadi) faction and its MLA, has said she will not vote in the elections, citing the Akhilesh Yadav-led party’s “negligence of the PDA” – Pichde (backwards), Dalits and Alpasankhyak (minorities) communities. Akhilesh has raised the PDA pitch as part of the SP’s Lok Sabha campaign.

By fielding its eighth candidate in the fray, the BJP has put the SP in a position of disadvantage with cross voting likely to feature in the polls.

With the numbers stacked up the way they are, the Rajya Sabha polls for the 10 seats in UP are thus likely to see some drama, with the two contenders trying to outsmart each other just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

Asad Rehman

Asad Rehman is with the national bureau of The Indian Express and covers politics and policy focusing on religious minorities in India. A journalist for over eight years, Rehman moved to this role after covering Uttar Pradesh for five years for The Indian Express. During his time in Uttar Pradesh, he covered politics, crime, health, and human rights among other issues. He did extensive ground reports and covered the protests against the new citizenship law during which many were killed in the state. During the Covid pandemic, he did extensive ground reporting on the migration of workers from the metropolitan cities to villages in Uttar Pradesh. He has also covered some landmark litigations, including the Babri Masjid-Ram temple case and the ongoing Gyanvapi-Kashi Vishwanath temple dispute. Prior to that, he worked on The Indian Express national desk for three years where he was a copy editor. Rehman studied at La Martiniere, Lucknow and then went on to do a bachelor's degree in History from Ramjas College, Delhi University. He also has a Masters degree from the AJK Mass Communication Research Centre, Jamia Millia Islamia. ... Read More