Written by Sanjay Kumar and Dhruv Pandey The BJP’s resounding win in the Delhi Assembly elections after nearly three decades has reshaped its appeal across various social groups. The party's feat was no accident – it was the result of a well-calibrated strategy that combined careful ticket distribution, targeted campaigning, and a strong pitch of being a “better alternative”. The BJP stitched up a broad social coalition successfully, garnering significant support among upper castes as well as Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) managed to retain its core base among the Dalit and Muslim communities, although it faced a slight dip in their support too. The Lokniti-CSDS survey during the Delhi elections provides insights into the social coalitions that both the BJP and the AAP were able to forge. The BJP's landslide victory could largely be credited to its formidable base among the upper caste communities. Table 1 highlights how the BJP has secured a high percentage of votes among all caste groups, especially among upper castes including Brahmins (66%), Vaishyas (66%), Punjabi Khatris (67%), and Rajputs (60%). Upper castes have leaned towards the BJP over the last several years, with their continued backing indicating their confidence in the party. The BJP also got support of OBCs (55%) barring Gujjars and Yadavs among whom its vote share was comparatively lower. However, the party's base among Muslims (15%) and Valmikis (25%) remain weak. On the other hand, the AAP's support base mainly includes Valmikis (67%), Jatavs (59%), and Muslims (65%). However, the party's reliance on these demographics may have limited its appeal among other castes, allowing the BJP to consolidate its position. The Congress again finished as a minor player in the Delhi polls, getting just single-digit vote shares across all major communities. The BJP’s ability to draw massive support from upper castes and significant sections of the OBC and non-Valmiki Dalit voters played a decisive role in ensuring its victory. The AAP’s overdependence on Dalits and Muslims proved to be insufficient in countering the BJP’s dominance across a larger vote base. Kumar is Professor and Co-director at Lokniti-CSDS; Pandey is a researcher at Lokniti-CSDS.
