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A short history of Delhi polls: BJP has ruled Capital only once, kept out first by Congress, then AAP

Though the AAP has never won a Delhi Lok Sabha seat, it remains the party to beat in Assembly polls, winning last time by 15%-point vote share margin. But BJP vote share has been rising, from 33% in 2013 to 39% in 2020.

AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (PTI Photos)

THE Delhi Assembly poll dates are finally out, with voting on February 5 and results on February 8. Going by past polls, the BJP’s dominance in recent Lok Sabha polls notwithstanding, Delhi’s Assembly has been dominated first by the Congress and now by the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

Since Delhi’s Legislative Assembly was established in 1993 – it had a metropolitan council with no legislative powers until then – the BJP has come to power only one time, in the first Assembly polls. The Congress ruled Delhi for three consecutive terms from 1998 to 2013, before the AAP came to power first in 2013, with a short-lived minority government, and has now completed its second consecutive term (2015 to 2025).

With any major alliances ruled out, the election is set to be a three-cornered fight between the AAP, BJP and Congress, with the Congress influence diminishing considerably since it fell out of power in 2013. The primary contenders this time are the AAP and BJP in the absence of an alliance between the AAP and Congress, who remain members of the national-level INDIA bloc.

The 2013 Assembly polls

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After four consecutive one-sided elections between 1993 and 2008, the 2013 polls threw up Delhi’s first hung Assembly. The BJP was the single largest party with 32 seats and a 33.07% vote share, but the AAP had a strong showing in its debut election winning 28 seats and a 29.49% vote share. The Congress, despite securing 24.55% of the vote share, was reduced to just eight seats. With no party clearing the 36-seat majority mark in the 70-member House, the AAP staked a claim to form the government with external support from the Congress.

2013 Assembly poll results

Vaulting to power on its anti-corruption agenda, the AAP then set out to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill to create an independent agency to investigate corruption. But less than two months into its term, AAP national convener and first-time CM Arvind Kejriwal resigned after failing to pass the Lokpal Bill. Delhi was subsequently placed under President’s Rule until fresh elections were held in 2015.

The 2015 and 2020 Assembly polls

2015 and 2020 Assembly polls

In 2015, Delhi returned to one-sided election outcomes, with the AAP returning to power in a landslide victory, securing 67 seats in the Assembly and an overwhelming 54.34% vote share. The BJP had just a year prior swept all seven of Delhi’s Lok Sabha seats, the party was reduced to just three Assembly seats though its vote share, at 32.19%, remained largely stable from 2013. The Congress, however, fell further in 2015, winning zero seats and dropping to a 9.65% vote share.

On the back of several popular welfare schemes, including free water, electricity, and public transport for women, the AAP returned to power in 2020 with another landslide win. It bagged 62 seats, a slight decline from 2015, and secured a 53.57% vote share. The BJP managed only a marginal improvement to eight seats while increasing its vote share to 38.51%. The Congress failed to win any seats once again with its vote share falling further to 4.26%.

Recent Lok Sabha polls

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Lok Sabha elections, however, have consistently thrown up diametrically opposite results to the Assembly polls in Delhi. Of the 10 elections since 1952 that have seen a single party sweep all of Delhi’s Lok Sabha seats, four such sweeps have occurred in each of the last four elections.

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The BJP, notably, has won all seven of Delhi’s Lok Sabha seats in consecutive elections since 2014. In 2009, the Congress had won all seven seats. The AAP, however, is yet to win a single parliamentary seat in Delhi, despite its dominance at the Assembly level.

Breaking down the 2024 Lok Sabha results to the Assembly-segment level shows that the BJP was the clear front-runner, leading in 52 Assembly segments. The AAP led in 10 Assembly segments and the Congress in eight, notching poor performances despite striking an alliance in these polls.