How close were past exit polls in Haryana and J-K?

In Jammu and Kashmir, which last held an Assembly election in 2014, exit polls had predicted a hung Assembly while giving the edge to the Peoples Democratic Party, ahead of the BJP, National Conference and Congress.

Haryana

In 2014, the BJP came to power ending the Congress’s 10-year run. An average of four exit polls had predicted the BJP would just fall short of the 46-seat majority mark in the 90-seat Assembly. While the BJP was projected to win an average of 43 seats across these polls, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was predicted to finish as the runner-up with 27 seats, followed by the Congress at 13.

The polls were just short of the mark for the BJP and Congress, which won 47 and 15 seats, respectively. Pollsters, however, were on average off by eight seats for the INLD, which ended up with 19 seats.

Two polls predicted the BJP would cross the majority mark that year – News 24-Chanakya and ABP News-Nielsen. Times Now and India TV-CVoter correctly predicted the Congress’s tally while News24-Chanakya was the closest to the INLD’s final score.

[CHART: 2014 HARYANA]

In 2019, however, most polls predicted a thumping BJP victory with some projecting wins in more than 70 seats. But the election ended in a hung Assembly, with all parties failing to cross the majority mark.

An average of eight exit polls put the BJP’s estimated tally at 61 seats, with the Congress trailing far behind at 18. However, the BJP ended up with just 40 seats and the Congress with 31. On average, these polls overestimated the BJP’s performance by 21 seats and underestimated the Congress’s tally by 13 seats.

Seven of these polls projected the BJP would alone hit the majority mark. While NewsX-Pollstrat predicted the BJP would win in as many as 75-80 seats, only India Today-Axis said it would win 32-44 seats and fall short of a majority.

Only three polls predicted the Congress would clear the 20-seat mark and just one said it would cross 30 seats. India Today-Axis’s projection of 30-42 for the Congress was the most accurate.

[CHART: 2019 HARYANA]Jammu and Kashmir

In 2014, the last time J&K held an Assembly election, the CVoter exit poll had predicted that no party would clear the 44-seat majority mark in the then 87-member House.

The exit poll had put the PDP on top with 32-38 seats, followed by the BJP at 27-33, the NC at 8-14, and the Congress at 4-10. In the end, the PDP won 28 seats, the BJP 25, the NC 15, and the Congress 12.