Assembly Election Results 2024 Live Analysis: The counting day came to an end with the BJP securing a clear majority in Haryana, making a comeback for a historic third term. In Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference won big in the first assembly polls in 10 years, with the shrunken Congress riding on its shoulders. While the BJP defied all the exit poll predictions in Haryana, the Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP, which formed the last state government in J&K with the BJP in 2019, saw its seats getting reduced from 28 to 4.
In Haryana: Even as the exit polls had projected a clear majority for Congress, the BJP’s win marks a first for Haryana, which had not seen any party form the government for three consecutive times. The victory hence will just be the boost the party needed after finishing short of a majority in the Lok Sabha polls – and ahead of the coming Assembly elections. Meanwhile, the narrative of a Congress revival that the grand old party had assiduously built after the Lok Sabha elections will be punctured.
In Kashmir: In Jammu and Kashmir, the biggest challenge for the new NC-Congress government is likely to be over representation to the Hindu-dominated mainland Jammu, where the allinace won no seat. The eight seats the two parties won in the Jammu province all fall in its hilly areas, including the Congress one and the NC seven.
Get latest news updates on ECI results for Election Results Haryana along with Election Results in J&K.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the NC-Congress alliance stood at 49 seats, including the CPI(M)’s one. This was well clear of the majority mark of 45 in the current Assembly. Of the 49 seats won by the combine, 42 were won by the NC (the party had won 15 seats in 2014) where as the Congress got just six seats, compared to 12 in 2014.
Ten years after 2014 Assembly elections, where the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats, the Mehbooba Mufti-led party has been routed in the Kashmir Valley. The party's seat count reduced to just three.
Among the high-profile losses was that of Mufti’s daughter Iltija from Srigufwara-Bijbehara and Mufti’s uncle Sartaj Madni from Kulgam. Other senior leaders such as Abdul Rehman Veeri and Mehboob Beig lost from Anantnag East and Anantnag respectively.
In a post on X, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the politics of development and good governance has won, and assured that his party will make all the efforts to fulfil the aspirations of the people.
PM Modi extended his gratitude to the party workers for their dedication sealing the BJP’s victory. “You have not only served the people of the state to the fullest, but have also taken our agenda of development to them. This is the result of which BJP has got this historic victory in Haryana,” Modi added.
Terming the BJP’s performance in Haryana polls as a “grand victory”, Modi thanked the people of the state for giving a clear majority to the party.
Former Union minister Birender Singh’s son Brijendra Singh who was contesting as Congress nominee lost by the thinnest margin of 32 votes to BJP’s Devender Chatar Bhuj Attri in Uchana Kalan. It is the same seat from where JJP’s Dushyant Chautala also lost and finished a distant fifth. Dushyant got barely 7,950 votes and even lost his security deposit. -- Varinder Bhatia reports
As the Bharatiya Janata Party gears up for a historic third term in Haryana, the Congress expressed its dissatisfaction over Tuesday’s results that went against the exit poll predictions.
Addressing the media, senior Congress leader and Rajya Sabha MP Jairam Ramesh said it is not possible for the party to accept the results of the Haryana Assembly elections. “Results in Haryana [are] totally unexpected, surprising; they go against ground reality,” he said. Read more
Bhupinde Singh Hooda was the one-man army of the Congress for this elections in Haryana – even if self-appointed. He exuded confidence about a third term as the state's chief minister -- in what would have been a big political comeback of sorts for the 77-year-old veteran.
Now that the Congress is headed for a crashing defeat in Haryana, Hooda can expect the sword to fall on him too.
Congress veteran-turned-rebel Kiran Choudhary’s daughter Shruti Choudhry won from Tosham by 14,257 votes. She defeated her cousin and Congress candidate Anirudh Choudhry. Shruti and Kiran had quit Congress and joined BJP after Lok Sabha polls. While Kiran got elected to Rajya Sabha, Shruti was fielded by BJP from her family’s traditional seat of Tosham. Shruti is Haryana’s former CM Bansi Lal’s granddaughter. --Varinder Bhatia reports
When Nayab Singh Saini, a relatively inexperienced leader, replaced Manohar Lal Khattar as Haryana CM in March this year, the BJP wanted a new face for a party unit that was battling 10 years of anti-incumbency and corruption charges.
While the Lok Sabha elections results were a bit dismal, today's results prove that the BJP’s gamble on Saini paid off.
Saini won from Ladwa seat defeating Congress Mewa Singh by 16,054 votes. The contest was being considered tough contest because it was his fourth constituency in the last 10 years. In 2014, Saini first time became MLA from Naraingarh, contested 2019 Lok Sabha from Kurukshetra and won, and then emerged victorious in Karnal bypoll this year before being fielded from Ladwa this time for October 5 polls.
Read more about how Saini proved to be the man for the CM job for BJP
Independent candidate Savitri Jindal wins from Hisar by 18,941 votes. She defeated BJP’s Dr Kamal Gupta, who finished a distant third while Congress candidate Ram Niwas Rara finished second.
Another Independent Devender Kadiyan won from Ganaur by 35,209 votes defeating Congress’ Kuldip Sharma. BJP’s Devender Kaushik finished a distant third. -- reports Varinder Bhatia
Congress candidate Gokul Setia defeated Haryana Lokhit Party’s Gopal Kanda in Sirsa by 7234 votes. BJP had withdrawn its candidate in Sirsa while INLD led by Abhay Chautala had also announced support to Kanda in Sirsa. Yet, he lost to Setia who contested Sirsa for the first time. -- reports Varinder Bhatia
Proving exit polls wrong, the BJP is headed for a third term in Haryana, seeming to turn the words of Prime Minister Narendra Modi true. The Prime Minister had repeatedly stated in his Haryana rallies that his party ruling the Centre has always won the state.
Here are the 5 reasons why Congress lost the plot to BJP in Haryana
As the BJP is headed towards a historic third-time victory in Haryana, it is just the boost the party needed after finishing a little away from clinching a majority in the Lok Sabha polls. While it will not be forming a government in Jammu and Kashmir, there too the BJP appears to hold on to at least its strongholds.
The JJP rebel Ram Kumar Gautam, who joined the BJP days before he was declared the party's nominee from Safidon, won the seat by 4,037 votes. In 2019, Gautam had won in Narnaund from JJP ticket. This time BJP allotted him a different constituency. Gautam is the same candidate on whose stage Ashok Tanwar campaigned last in BJP’s favour. Hours later, Tanwar joined Congress in Mahendragarh. -- Varinder Bhatia reports
Following the violence in Nuh last year, the BJP targeted Congress MLA Mamman Khan who has retained his Firozepur Jhirka seat by 98,441 votes, the highest margin in this Assembly election. Known for his social activities across southern Haryana, Khan was charged under UAPA and subsequently got bail. In 2019, he won on a Congress ticket after garnering 57.62% of the votes.
In her debut political contest, Olympian Vinesh Phogat won the Julana seat by 6,015 votes. She is the first ever woman candidate having won from this seat. Considered a Jat-dominated constituency, and the sentiments in favour of Vinesh after she was disqualified in Paris Olympics, Congress fielded her as its nominee. JJP’s Amarjeet Dhanda who had won in 2019 from this seat finished a distant fourth.
Reacting to her win, Vinesh said: “It is the victory of truth. All those who have voted for me shall be happy that we won from Julana. I will always respect the mandate that people gave me. I shall always try to keep faith and love of people of Julana intact. I am a sportsperson and shall work for the sportspersons of my State and all the people of my constituency”. --Reports Varinder Bhatia
Despite forecasts of a sweeping victory for the Indian National Congress, the BJP seems on way to improving its 2019 performance, when it secured 40 seats and had to ally with the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP).
Here are five factors that contributed to the BJP’s apparent success.
Facing huge anti-incumbency in Haryana, farmer and wrestler anger over long-lasting protests and discontent over the Agniveer scheme, the BJP spread out its bets in the state. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi pitched in with big rallies, though he addressed just four against 10 in 2019, there was equal emphasis on local leaders and the consolidation of anti-Jat votes.
The Congress’s overarching emphasis on Jat vote appears to have rallied the other communities against the party. Even the Dalit vote, which the Congress had been banking on after its success in wooing them in the Lok Sabha polls, appears to have not deserted the BJP completely.
Springing a surprise, the Aam Aadmi Party is set to have its maiden entry into the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly as its candidate Mehraj Malik is leading in Doda by 4,770 votes from BJP’s Gjay Singh Rana at during the last round of counting in Doda.
The AAP had shown its presence in Chenab Valley region of Jammu province when Malik had for the first time organised a massive rally in Doda town in March 2022.
Malik, a member of the Doda District Development Council, has often been in news for carrying of protests against the local administration. Accordingly, he is facing police cases for locking the offices of some revenue officials or blocking roads. --Reports Arun Sharma
Setting its house in order by replacing its senior leaders with new faces to overcome anti-incumbency factor and helped by lacklustre campaign by the Congress, BJP outperformed its 2014 performance wiping out Congress from Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Reasi and Udhampur districts.
Of the 26 seats, falling in these areas, BJP had so far been declared elected in four constituencies - Udhampur East, Chenani, Basohli and Jammu West. --Reports Arun Sharma
BJP national president JP Nadda will meet with the party’s Haryana general secretaries shortly.
Leading in only Rajouri (ST) of the 43 Assembly constituencies, Congress stands wiped out in Jammu province. However, its leading margin from nearest BJP rival Vibodh Gupta is only around 2,500. There is still two rounds of counting left in the final outcome of the results.
In Jammu South's R S Pura constituency, former minister Raman Bhalla, who was locked in a keenly contested electoral battle, was trailing from BJP’s national secretary Narender Singh by 325 votes. Meanwhile, BJP’s R S Pathania has been declared elected from Udhampur East by a margin of 2,349 votes. —Reports Naveed Iqbal
The trends suggest that the smaller parties which got tagged as BJP’s proxies and the independents - the BJP relied heavily on them - have failed to attract the voters this time. Surprisingly, Engineer Rashid’s party has failed to take the lead even on a single assembly segment. Rashid’s brother, Sheikh Khurshid Ahmad is also trailing from Langate, the seat represented by Rashid twice in 2008 and 2014. The tagging of these independents and the smaller parties has been a key reason for their failure to make a mark in these assembly polls. Altaf Bukhari’s Apni party that failed to take-off after its was founded in 2020 has failed in its last chance of redemption. The party is unable to take lead on any seat and even its founder and president Altaf Bukhari is trailing behind the National Conference candidate Mushtaq Ahmad Guroo. --Reports Naveed Iqbal
The Congress that was confident of returning to power in Haryana by ousting the BJP government after a decade was on the edge Tuesday as the BJP crossed the halfway mark in early trends, upsetting the grand old party’s calculations.
Though Congress leaders argued it was too early to count it out as only one-third of the votes had been counted, it was far from the sweep they had expected.
Behind the scenes, a blame game is waiting to begin, according to party insiders. The party will now be back to the drawing board. And there are many questions to be answered: was it politically wise to put all the eggs in the Bhupinder Singh Hooda basket, how did the open tug of war between the Hoodas and Kumari Selja for the Chief Minister’s post play out, were there lacunae in the selection of candidates (Hooda’s detractors have been claiming that he cornered a lion’s share of the tickets) and was the party overconfident and complacent?
Congress MP and communication-in-charge Jairam Ramesh has alleged that pressure was being exerted on local administration and that the results for 10-12 rounds have come, but the update on ECI website and (TV) channels is only for four-five rounds.
In a post on social media, Ramesh wrote: “Like the Lok Sabha results, the election trends in Haryana are also being deliberately shared slowly on the Election Commission's website. Is the BJP trying to put pressure on the administration?”
PDP's Iltija Mufti, next in line for the Mufti family in J&K’s politics, was the first to concede defeat as results rolled out on Tuesday. She was trailing against NC’s Bashir Ahmad Veeri by just over 4000 votes. This was Iltija’s first electoral plunge from the Bijbehara seat that has previously been represented by her grandfather and former J&K chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed.
In a hard fought campaign, Iltija invoked the party’s legacy in “fighting for the rights of the people of J&K” and how they paid the price for their alliance with the BJP in 2014. The party has long argued that the voters in Jammu had put their weight behind the BJP in Jammu, in the 2014 elections, and that mandate deserved to be respected. Thus, paving the way for the PDP-BJP coalition.
A fierce critic of the BJP, Iltija was elevated as media incharge for her mother and party president Mehbooba Mufti last year. While Mufti remained steadfast on her word not to contest assembly polls with J&K as a UT, the party fielded Iltija in this election. --Reports Naveed Iqbal
The trends indicate the Congress getting a jolt in the Jat-dominated 14 assembly seats of southern Haryana. These seats fall in the “Hooda-bastion”, due to influence of senior party leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda among Jat voters here.
These 14 seats fall in three districts-- Sonipat, Rohtak and Jhajjar. The trends show that Congress was leading on eight seats whereas BJP was in the leading position in four seats. Independents were leading on the other two seats.
This scenario is different from 2019 when Congress had won 11 seats in this belt. Then, BJP had won only two seats while Independents had won one seat.
In this this region, Hooda's supporters had declared him as “bhaavi mukhya mantri” (future CM) in their election campaign. --Reports Lalmani Verma
Though BJP appears to be on way to outperform its 2014 performance when it had won 25 seats and formed government in coalition with the PDP, trends suggest that it will be difficult for it to re-enter corridors of power this time.
While the NC is leading in 42 constituencies and Congress in 10, the BJP was ahead in 26 segments. The PDP was leading in five, J&K People’s Conference (2), and independents (7).
In the 95 member house including five to be nominated by the Lt Governor, one needs 48 members to form the government.
The trends of seats reserved for SCs and STs in Jammu and Kashmir are showing an interesting picture. The BJP is leading in all seven SC-reserved seats. On the other hand, National Conference-Congress alliance is leading on seven of the nine ST-reserved seats in the state. Independents are leading on the other two ST-reserved seats. The trends show a mixed response to issues of reservation and caste census which were raised by the Congress in the campaign there. -- Reports Lalmani Verma
The Indian National Congress is heading for a clean sweep in Muslim dominated belts, including Nuh, Ferozepur Jhirka and Punahana. While Nuh riots accused Mamman Khan is leading by 51780 votes after eight out of 19 rounds of counting, Aftab Ahmed is leading by 28973 votes, and Mohammad Ilyas is leading by 21778 votes.
The BJP's candidates in all three constituencies are trailing. In Nuh, BJP's Sanjay Singh is on a distant third position while INLD's Tahir Hussain is on second spot. In Ferozepur Jhirka, BJP's Naseem Ahmed is on third spot while INLD's Mohammad Habib is on second spot. In Punahana, BJP's Mohd Aizaz Khan is on a distant third spot while Independent Rahish Khan is on the second spot. -- Reports Varinder Bhatia
In the five seats where NC and Congress agreed on a friendly contest the advantage is with the BJP so far. BJP is in the lead on three of these five seats.
These are Sopore, Banihal, Bhaderwah, Doda and Nagrota.
This is how things stand:
-- Reports Naveed Iqbal
