In Jammu-dominated third phase that votes today, BJP has led in every election since 2014

After eight Scheduled Tribe-reserved seats voted in the first two phases, the last ST seat – Gurez – will vote in the third phase. This phase will also see all of J&K’s seven Scheduled Caste-reserved seats vote, including Akhnoor, Bishnah, Kathua, Marh, Ramgarh, Ramnagar, and Suchetgarh, all located in the Jammu division.

At least eight seats in the final phase have either been renamed or carved out of other constituencies after the delimitation exercise in 2022. These 40 seats roughly correspond to 36 pre-delimitation seats.

In the 2014 Assembly elections, these third phase seats were where the BJP performed best. Its 18 seats made it the clear leader, followed by the Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP in seven seats, the Farooq Abdullah-led NC in five, and the Congress, Independents, and Sajad Lone-led PC in two seats each. These seats, mostly concentrated in Jammu, were crucial towards the BJP winning a total 25 seats across the erstwhile state and forming a coalition government with the PDP.

The BJP secured a 32.86% vote share, almost double those of its rivals. While the Congress got 17.25% of the vote share, the NC got 15.56% and the PDP 14.51%.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP led in 21 Assembly segments that fall under the 40 third-phase seats, followed by the NC in eight and the PC in two. Engineer Rashid, contesting as an Independent from the Baramulla parliamentary seat, led in five Assembly segments.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the first since abrogation of Article 370 and delimitation, the BJP again led in these 40 Assembly segments. The saffron party won 22 segments, followed by the NC and Congress at two each, and the PC at one. Engineer Rashid led in 13 segments en route to winning the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat.

Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections: At stake in Phase 3

This time, in this third phase, among the key contestants is Sajad Lone, who is fighting from his home turf Handwara as well as adjoining Kupwara, that the party had won in the 2014 Assembly elections.

Sopore constituency, breaking away from its history of poll boycotts, witnessed a fiery campaign. Its 20 candidates include Aijaz Ahmad Guroo, the brother of Afzal Guru, who was hanged for his role in the 2001 Parliament attack.

It is one of the five seats in which the Congress and NC were in a friendly fight in the elections.

Engineer Rashid’s brother Sheikh Khurshid is also in the fray, contesting his first election from Langate, his brother’s former stronghold, and is facing Jamaat-panel backed candidate Dr Kaleem Ullah Lone. Rashid was given interim bail to campaign and is scheduled to return to Tihar on October 2.

The campaign for North Kashmir saw parties raise issues of “identity” post the abrogation of Article 370, while allegations threw thick and fast about who was “a BJP proxy”. Issues of reservation also came up, apart from unemployment.

In Jammu, those whose fates will be decided Tuesday include former ministers Tara Chand from Chhamb, Choudhary Lal Singh from Basohli, Surjit Singh Slathia from Samba, Sham Lal Sharma, Ajay Sadhotra from Jammu North, and Devender Singh Rana from Nagrota. The Nagrota seat is witnessing a three-way contest between the NC, Congress and the BJP.

In Chenani, cousins Harshdev Singh and Balwant Singh Mankotia, both nephews of the late Professor Bhim Singh who founded the J&K Panthers Party, are fighting against each other.

Apart from the caste factor, the presence of 1-1.5 lakh voters from among the descendants of refugees from West Pakistan and a few thousand from Valmiki and Gorkha communities who, post August 9, 2019, have become eligible to cast vote for the first time in the J&K Assembly elections, will be crucial.

While the BJP is contesting all the 24 seats in the Jammu region that vote Tuesday, the Congress has fielded 19 candidates and ally NC five.