In the closely contested battle for Bihar five years ago, the Shahabad region near Patna was the NDA’s weakest zone as it won only two — Arrah and Jagdishpur — of the 22 Assembly seats spread across the four districts of Bhojpur, Buxar, Kaimur, and Rohtas. The situation did not improve in last year’s Lok Sabha elections either, with the ruling coalition losing all four Lok Sabha seats in the region: Arrah, Buxar, Karakat, and Sasaram.
With both Chirag and Kushwaha back in its fold, the NDA this time is confident of breaking its poor run in Shahabad, once known for being the stronghold of socialist and Leftist politics. The “Triveni Sangh” confederation of the three backward class groups of Koeris, Kurmis, and Yadavs came into existence here in 1933. Iconic farmer leader Swami Sahjanand Saraswati also based his movement for peasant rights in Shahabad and the adjoining Magadh region (Gaya, Aurangabad, Jehanabad, and Arwal). His efforts ultimately led to the formation of the All India Kisan Sabha in 1936.
A JD(U) leader said the NDA was in a better position this time because of its two allies returning to its umbrella and because of the Nitish Kumar government’s “dashazari scheme (Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana)”, the first instalment of which put Rs 10,000 in the accounts of its beneficiaries. “All seven seats in Bhojpur (which voted on November 6) will witness a tough fight, which was not seen last time,” he said.
Political scientist Sajjan Kumar said the Mahagathbandhan swept Shahabad in 2020 because of the weight of the RJD alliance with the CPI (M-L) L, which drew a chunk of Kushwaha and EBC votes, even as Chirag’s LJP took away the Paswan Dalit votes. Tejashwi managed to get some support from the upper castes as well, because of the appeal of his jobs pitch among young men.
Arrah resident A K Pandey, a property developer, said five seats in Bhojpur could see a close contest between the two alliances and that, unlike last year, the Kushwaha vote would likely consolidate behind the NDA.
Buxar resident Chandan Kaatyan, a research scholar at BHU, said four constituencies in the district could see an even battle, with women’s votes largely going to the CM and the male, youth vote coalescing behind Tejashwi because of his jobs narrative.
According to Kaimur resident Vishnu Narayan, a freelance writer, triangular contests will decide the poll outcome in Chenari, Chainpur, and Ramgarh, as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is also a key player in these seats because they border Uttar Pradesh.
“The election in Ramgarh is so tight that its upper-caste Rajput candidate Ajit Singh (brother of RJD’s Buxar MP Sudhakar Singh) is telling voters (mainly Yadavs) that if he does not win, Tejashwi won’t become the CM. He is telling Yadav voters not to support a Pintu Yadav from the BSP.”
