The BJP-led Mahayuti not only won the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections but returned to power by handing over a deafening defeat to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) by bagging over 230 of the 288 seats. But what led the MVA — comprising the Congress, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP — to register such a dismal performance that it cannot even claim the Leader of Opposition’s post in the Maharashtra Assembly? Lack of pan-Maharashtra narrative, failure to present a collective leadership as individual leaders relied heavily on their personal vendetta and inability to offer a positive vision to voters led to MVA’s defeat in Maharashtra. The extent of damage to the Opposition is such that the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly may not see a Leader of Opposition for the next five years as none of the parties have managed to reach the 10 per cent seat share of the total strength of 288 necessary to claim the post. The humiliating defeat has also raised the question over the existence of the MVA in the state as Maharashtra at present stands virtually without an Opposition in the legislative house. Among the Opposition, the worst defeat is of Congress as the party has seen its lowest tally ever since the formation of Maharashtra as many of its senior as well as second-rank leaders faced defeat in their respective strongholds. The Congress failed to devise a narrative different from what it presented during the Lok Sabha elections. Congress leader and Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, relied on the old narrative of the BJP trying to change the Constitution and conducting caste census in his speeches. The five guarantees presented by the MVA were mostly in reply to the promises made by the ruling Mahayuti, such as increasing the direct cash benefit to women beneficiaries to Rs 3,000 from Rs 1,500 — the amount that was being doled out by the previous ruling regime under the Ladki Bahin Yojana. The decentralisation of power, which worked for the Congress during the Lok Sabha polls, seems to have completely boomeranged in the assembly polls. Senior leaders such as Balasaheb Thorat and former Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan lost in their respective strongholds while the promising second-rank leadership of Satej Patil from Kolhapur, Amit Deshmukh from Latur, Sunil Kedar from Nagpur and Yashomati Thakur from Amravati failed to win in their constituencies, reducing the party’s tally to 15 — the lowest since the state’s formation. Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole’s unnecessary duels with Shiv Sena UBT, failure to take the party leaders along with him and public boasting after the Lok Sabha poll victory did not go down too well with voters as well as party workers. Sharad Pawar’s NCP While Sharad Pawar led an impressive campaign throughout the state, the lack of second-rank leadership in the party harmed the prospects of NCP(SP). The tag of being a Maratha-dominated party seems to have hurt the party’s prospects as it failed to draw votes from all communities. Three months ago, the veteran politician had given a call to change the present government. However, the MVA failed to continue with the momentum towards the aim with collective effort. While Sharad Pawar led the NCP(SP) campaign in the state, he failed to get the adequate support on ground from the second-rank leadership to draw votes. The party also failed to wipe the tag of Maratha party and in the wake of the agitation by activist Manoj Jarange-Patil seeking OBC status for Marathas, the non-Marathas consolidated against the party. With legislative strength reduced, the opposition MVA is unlikely to make an impression inside the house and is now left with no option but to focus on re-organising itself on ground. Both the Congress and NCP-SP will have to focus on their respective state leaderships to strengthen the party. Shiv Sena UBT While Uddhav Thackeray and his son Aaditya, who won from Worli, campaigned extensively across the state, targeting Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the BJP by accusing them of indulging in corruption and giving preferential treatment to several businessmen including industrialist Gautam Adani, it failed to ring a bell with the voters. The party’s strategy, along with the MVA, seemed to have failed to counter the narrative set by the ruling side in which they claimed that the MVA is dividing castes and religions to gain votes and Uddhav has abandoned Hindutva and had taken to appeasement politics to get the votes of the minorities. The Sena UBT failed to counter the “vote jihad” narrative set by the BJP and Shinde-led Sena and could not even continue with the momentum and sympathy wave the party had during the Lok Sabha polls. The Shiv Sena, which was weakened after the BJP caused a rift in the party through its Operation Lotus that was driven by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde in June 2022, could not recover even after two years and failed to regain lost ground. Since the Sena UBT had lost 40 MLAs and 15 MPs and most of the first and second-rung leaders, the party did not have any strong faces to field them in the polls and had to give tickets to either fresh faces who were lightweights as compared to the opponents or the turncoats, who were considered spent force. During the Lok Sabha polls, the Sena UBT’s tally came down despite its other alliance partners performing better. The Sena UBT seems to have not improvised its strategy for the assembly polls and did not have strong candidates to field in the polls. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena has lost its ground not only in the state’s politics but also in the Opposition bloc. However, with the party managing to perform better in Mumbai where it bagged 10 of the 20 seats it won across Maharashtra, the party has an opportunity to perform better during the civic body polls, including in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, to regain its lost ground and build its base again.
