More than a decade since its last Assembly elections, and after more than six years under President’s Rule, Jammu and Kashmir finally has a new government, set to be helmed by the National Conference (NC) in alliance with the Congress. While the Mehbooba Mufti-led Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was the last party to lead a J&K government, results of the past two Lok Sabha polls had indicated that the Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference (NC) was in the ascendant. The rise of the BJP in the Union Territory was also clear, as well as the decline of the Congress and PDP. The NC has recorded a steady rise in the past two Lok Sabha elections after dropping to 15 in the 2014 Assembly polls. It was ahead in 30 Assembly segments in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, and rose further to 34 Assembly segments in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. It improved this even more to 42 seats in the just concluded Assembly polls. In terms of vote share, the NC has remained largely stable barring the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2014 Assembly elections, it secured a 21.14% vote share, but fell steeply to 7.94% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. However, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls saw it rise to 22.3%, while in the current Assembly polls, it did better at 23.43%. It’s worth noting that in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Ladakh was a part of J&K. The Congress and PDP decline has also been staring the parties in the face. The Congress won 12 seats in the 2014 Assembly polls, then 16 Assembly segments in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the recent Lok Sabha polls, it fell to just seven segments, and ended up getting even lower, at six, in the Assembly polls that just got over. In terms of vote share, the party went from 18.01% in the 2014 Assembly polls to a high of 28.65% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, before falling to 19.38% in this year’s general election and dropping further in these Assembly polls to 11.97%. The PDP, which was in power from 2014 to 2018 and at whose cost the NC has made gains this time, won 28 Assembly seats in 2014, and then four and five Assembly segments in the Lok Sabha polls of 2019 and 2024. But its vote share has dropped significantly since 2014, when it had secured 22.67%. In the following two Lok Sabha polls, it got 2.38% and 8.48% vote shares. In these Assembly elections, its vote share dropped to 8.87%. Though the BJP performed impressively, and is now the principal Opposition with wins in 29 seats, it remains confined to the Jammu division. In 2014, its tally of 25 seats in the Assembly polls was its best-ever performance in J&K till then. In the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the party rose, getting 30 and 29 Assembly segments, respectively. Its seats in the just concluded Assembly polls are also 29. In terms of vote share, the party has gone from a 22.98% vote share in the 2014 Assembly polls, when it backed the PDP to form the government, to 25.64% in the current Assembly elections. In the Lok Sabha polls though, the party saw a fall from 46.68% in 2019 to 24.36% in 2024. A notable aspect of the recent Assembly elections was believed to be the role of Independents. Though they won just three seats in the 2014 Assembly polls, there were seven Independent winners this time, far lower than some expected them to win. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Independent Engineer Rashid, who won the Baramulla Lok Sabha seats, led in 14 Assembly segments.
