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Journalism of Courage
Belying all exit poll predictions, the BJP appeared to be struggling to reach even the 240 mark on its own in leads available till noon Tuesday for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, suffering unexpected reverses in Uttar Pradesh and losses in Rajasthan, Bihar and Karnataka — states where the party dominated in 2019. The party is suffering reverses in West Bengal, as well.
Overall, by noon, the BJP is leading in 238 seats. Other key NDA allies TDP is leading in 16 seats and Jan Sena in 2 seats in Andhra Pradesh; Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) in 15 seats and LJP in 5 in Bihar; Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena in 6 seats in Maharashtra; and, JD(S) in three in Karnataka.
On the other hand, the Opposition INDIA alliance is shaping to script a remarkable turnaround, nearing 220 seats with Congress ahead in 95 seats, SP in 36, TMC in 32, DMK in 21, Shiv Sena (UBT) in 11, NCP (Sharad Pawar) in 8 and RJD in 5, followed by other partners.
If these numbers hold, the BJP will have to depend on its NDA allies to form the Central Government, especially with allies TDP and JD(U) doing well. And this would also herald the return of a coalition government after a decade, a situation which the Narendra Modi-led BJP has not experienced so far at the Centre.
Key NDA ally Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP scripted a fairytale comeback in Andhra Pradesh as it has crossed the halfway mark in the 175-member state assembly and is leading in 16 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats it contested. The veteran Naidu is now set to emerge as a kingmaker at the Centre.
In Bihar, too, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is leading in 14 seats as compared to ally BJP’s 11 in the state. Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD is leading in 5.
Yet, the story of these elections so far is Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is facing a resounding setback. The party had won 62 seats on its own and 64 with ally Apna Dal in 2019, but is now leading in only 32 seats. The SP, which fought the elections in alliance with the Congress, is leading in 36 seats and the Congress in 9.
The story in Maharashtra is no different for the BJP, with the Opposition alliance of Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Congress leading in 30 of the 48 seats. The BJP is leading in only 11, while its allies Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is leading in 5 and Ajit Pawar’s NCP in only 1.
It is an unhappy situation for the BJP, especially in the North. In the south, the BJP is set to open its account in Kerala with leads in two seats in Kerala, and could double its tally of 4 in Telangana. But there is bad news for the party from Karnataka where the party is leading in 17 seats after winning 25 of 28 seats last time. The Congress is leading in eight seats. In Tamil Nadu, where the BJP was projected to pick up some seats, the party is leading in none. Its vote share, however, has crossed the 9 per cent mark compared to 3.62 percent last time.
In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP is leading in 3 seats, up from zero last time.
As for the top NDA allies, the TDP, which on its own has crossed the halfway mark in the Andhra Pradesh assembly, could emerge as a powerful voice in the alliance and so will the JD(U).
The BJP had stormed to power in 2014, winning 282 seats on its own and becoming the first party to secure a simple majority after three decades. In 2019, it bettered its own tally to 303. This time, it seems to be struggling to reach the halfway mark.
