When the BJP won only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha elections in June 2024, many felt that the ride for Narenda Modi might get bumpy in his third term. And that he would be compelled to rely on his NDA allies – something not perceived to be part of the political DNA of the Prime Minister used to getting his way.
Modi enters the second year of his third term, no small achievement, with his allies batting even more convincingly for him than was the case last year. They include Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP (16 Lok Sabha seats), Bihar CM Nitish Kumar of the JD (U) (12 seats), Chirag Paswan of the LJP (RV) with his 5 seats and others. On its part, the BJP has shown a flexibility in catering to the needs of its allies. The party has decided, for instance, to fight the upcoming Bihar elections under Nitish’s leadership to keep him by its side. Nitish’s ill health has made him even more unpredictable.
The BJP leadership had to contend with a not-too-happy RSS in the Lok Sabha elections. The Sangh’s “indifferent stance” was among the key factors that brought down the party in UP from 62 seats to 33 while reducing its national tally well below the majority mark.
The below par 2024 poll results and the parleys that followed between the RSS and BJP leaders may not have fully resolved all issues (the decision on the next party chief’s appointment is pending). It, however, galvanised the Sangh workers, who came out to campaign vigorously for the BJP in subsequent polls, like in the past, contributing to the party’s victory in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi. The three back-to-back wins helped the BJP regain its lost steam.
The Sangh is now maintaining a low profile. The celebrations for 100 years of the founding of the RSS this year have been subdued so far. The Sangh is not questioning Modi’s leadership regardless of any possible reservations it might have. It would however like to continue having a say in the BJP’s organisational matters even as it is a given that Modi will be the party’s “chehra” in the 2029 Lok Sabha polls too.
The Pahalgam terror attack was a defining milestone in the first year of the Modi government 3.0. The ceasefire announced on May 10 between India and Pakistan came in for criticism from the extreme Right, a constituency the PM has to contend with—and in some ways, the BJP leadership became a victim of its own high-pitched rhetoric.
Soon after the ceasefire, trolls on social media took aim at the PM for not capturing PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) and inflicting more damage on Pakistan. This was compounded by Donald Trump announcing the ceasefire and going on to repeat it multiple times that the US had brokered it. It would have been a different story had the Government announced the ceasefire after the Pakistan DGMO’s talk with his Indian counterpart.
The principal Opposition Congress tried to stoke the row with Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi framing it as “Surrender by Narender ”. That jibe jarred many – especially at a time when multi-party delegations were abroad mobilising global support for India’s position and its Operation Sindoor.
These seven “Sindoor delegations” sent to 33 world capitals helped the PM control any domestic political damage and reseize the initiative. Whatever be the impact these delegations had on the policymakers in the countries they visited, back home they sent a powerful message of unity at a time of national crisis. For all their differences, leaders from different parties spoke with one voice on national security and against terror emanating from Pakistan, they were all sincere and strong.
Several Opposition delegates also seemed to have gained from the diplomatic mission. AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi, attacked by some quarters for taking a Muslim hardline approach on issues, was hailed widely for tearing into Pakistan. A “kattar” Hindu from Varanasi told Congress leader Salman Khurshid that he wanted to come and touch his feet after the stand he took on Kashmir. While abroad, Khurshid supported the abrogation of Article 370 as it had marked Kashmir’s “separateness”.
The global outreach thus helped the Opposition leaders acquire a “nationalistic” profile, with some of them seen to be articulating the government’s line more effectively than even some of the BJP delegates. Can “nationalism”, which has been a core issue of the BJP, become as much of an issue of the Opposition, helping it to shape a new narrative? Much will depend on how the Opposition chooses to build on this.
Modi enters the second year of his third term with new opportunities and huge challenges facing him.
The situation in Jammu and Kashmir represents a new opportunity for the Modi government to address the demand for restoration of its statehood. After the Pahalgam attack, J&K stood with the rest of India in a way not seen in recent years.
In view of the rise of the extreme Right and the challenge posed by Pakistan- backed terror and its ecosystem, the PM may be called to fashion a politics with a different focus.
What gave the government strength in its outreach programme was the absence of a Hindu-Muslim conflict in the country which Pakistan would have hoped to accentuate through the Pahalgam strike —as a backlash to the terrorists ascertaining the religion of the men they killed in front of their families.
The Hindu-Muslim unity, frayed in recent years, held after Pahalgam—it is something the PM could build on. Though polarisation politics has yielded the BJP electoral dividends, has it become a risky card to play, given the geo-political situation that is now emerging in the neighbourhood?
But then the Modi-led BJP may have to put together a somewhat different constituency. One of Modi’s achievements has been to help the BJP transit from a Bania- Brahmin outfit into a party which has the backing of almost all communities today —though its hold among the minorities is weak, with Muslims continuing to feel marginalised and insecure.
The PM decided to go in for a caste census, despite reservations from within the Sangh Parivar—and despite its demand coming most vocally from Rahul. With it, Modi chose to throw the net wider, aiming at a larger catchment area—for the allegiance of the OBCs, the extremely backward castes and the most backward groups among Dalits and even the Muslim community.
The population Census along with the caste enumeration will be completed in March 2027, which is expected to trigger fresh demands for reservations from more communities. With women emerging as a critical constituency, the implementation of the already-enacted Women Reservation Act is contingent on the completion of the delimitation exercise which will follow the Census. It is unclear whether this can happen in time for 2029 or will have to await till 2034. Delimitation will also pose a major challenge with resistance expected from the Southern states.
Given these challenges, will Modi move towards the politics of alliances as a strategy and not just as a compulsion—and strike inclusive notes – keeping in mind 2029? Or will he go back to the old, tried and tested method of polarisation? Only time will answer these crucial questions.
(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’)
