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This is an archive article published on June 10, 2024

As PM Modi’s third term gets underway, the big question: Can he turn a coalition to his advantage?

Facing the prospect of running a coalition government for the first time, the PM is likely to face challenges on three fronts: NDA allies, a stronger Opposition, and navigating party-RSS relations.

Modi also gave up the PM’s prerogative to choose his ministers, something that is the first casualty in a coalition government.Modi also gave up the PM’s prerogative to choose his ministers, something that is the first casualty in a coalition government. (Image credit: X/@narendramodi)

With Narendra Modi elected Prime Minister for the third straight time, this time at the head of a coalition government, the question uppermost on people’s minds as he took the oath of office and secrecy at Rashtrapati Bhavan on Sunday was: Can Modi be a coalition-builder?

Atal Bihari Vajpayee ran coalitions during his prime ministership in 1996, 1998, and 1999. Modi on the other hand has always run majority governments, in Gujarat (2001 to 2014) and nationally for the last 10 years. The results on June 4 exactly did not go as per the PM’s expectations but he had recovered by the next evening when he addressed his Cabinet colleagues. The PM is believed to have told them he would run a coalition government successfully and fulfil the “coalition dharma”. Those who were with him came away with the feeling that the PM had taken up running a coalition government as a challenge and was determined to prove his sceptics wrong.

Modi’s new Cabinet signals continuity as well as caution. He has retained many of his old and experienced ministerial colleagues to show that the situation is politically stable—and he is in control of it. He does not want to risk any rumblings from within his party just when he is trying to stabilise a new situation with the allies.

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The TDP (16 MPs) and the Janata Dal-United (12) have emerged as key players, and it would be surprising if they were not moving in step. Both of them have long governance experience in the United Front governments and the NDA government headed by Vajpayee.

Chandrababu Naidu has always been a sober player and is looking for a financial package for his state and its capital Amaravati. Yet — and this is curious — he has agreed to only one Cabinet Ministerial berth and one Minister of State (MoS) position despite having 16 MPs — the same number given to Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) despite its fewer (12) MPs. The question that remains is if Naidu is still pushing for the Lok Sabha Speaker’s position or if he will be satisfied with a financial bonanza for his state.

The Speaker is a crucial position in a coalition government. As a senior journalist summed it up, “Jiska Speaker, uski sarkar (The party that gets the Speaker’s post, holds the government’s fate in its hand).” It would be tempting for a ruling party without a majority to break smaller parties to get a majority. P V Narasimha Rao who also won 240 seats in 1991 went on to acquire a majority two years later by splitting smaller parties.

For the moment, the JD(U) will also want to consolidate its gains in Delhi and Patna and get ready to face a resurgent Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in the Bihar Assembly elections next year.

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In the last few days, the PM appears to have shifted gear, striking conciliatory notes. He made it clear that the government was not a Modi or a BJP government but an NDA government. From the moment go, primacy was given to the NDA (as opposed to the BJP). Rajnath Singh proposed Modi’s name as the leader of the NDA parliamentary party (and therefore the PM-designate), the BJP parliamentary party, and the leader of the Lok Sabha — all together in one go — and seconded by Amit Shah and Nitin Gadkari. In the past, the election of the leader of the BJP parliamentary party used to precede the election of the leader of the NDA.

Modi also gave up the PM’s prerogative to choose his ministers, something that is the first casualty in a coalition government. As in the past, the leaders of the alliance partners sent the names of those from their parties who should be sworn in as ministers. In fact, the Prime Minister went a step further and held a marathon session with party colleagues Amit Shah, J P Nadda and B L Santhosh, supposedly on the contours of the new government. Nadda is seen to be playing the role of the coordinator, calling all those who will be ministers in NDA-3. Modi called on senior “Margdarshak Mandal” figures Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi, who have been sidelined, and asserted that he would run the country by a “consensus”.

The challenges

Modi is likely to face challenges on three fronts. He will have to take along the allies — berths in the Cabinet is only one part of the story. The allies have insisted on a review of the Agnipath scheme, which emerged as an emotive poll issue in the northern states, and a change may be on the cards. The Uniform Civil Code (UCC) is likely to be put on the back burner even as “one nation, one election” becomes trickier to implement. How the BJP deals with Nitish Kumar’s demand for a national caste census remains to be seen.

The Hindu-Muslim rhetoric may also take a back seat, at least for the time being. The TDP has already made it clear that it has no intention of giving up the 4% reservation for the Muslims that exists in Andhra Pradesh (under the OBC quota). During the campaign, the BJP mounted a blistering attack against reservation for Muslims on religious lines.

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The second challenge to Modi will come from a strengthened Opposition in the Lok Sabha. With 232 members in the House, it is going to be loud, boisterous, fractious, and likely to put the government on the mat. And it will be more difficult to ram through pieces of legislation without a discussion or disqualify and suspend members as has happened during the last term.

But the most important terrain that Modi will be required to navigate is his party and the RSS. The last few days have seen meetings between senior BJP leaders and the Sangh brass and internal meetings of the RSS leadership to go into the reasons for the BJP’s decline by more than 60 seats. But the senior leaders of the BJP and the RSS are quiet and may wait till the outcome of the state elections due in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand later this year and perhaps the elections in Delhi and Bihar next year. In all these states, the INDIA alliance is expected to mount a serious challenge to the NDA. Modi will be called to reseize the political initiative in these states and course correct where necessary.

Buffeted by partners, Vajpayee as a newly elected PM had gone in for nuclear tests in May 1998 and stilled the voices of his maverick allies. He had almost done it in 1996 but this time he chose his timing to get the better of the allies who were giving him a runaround. The question then becomes: what will that move be to get the better of his allies, if they become difficult?

Politicians are a pragmatic breed when it comes to power, wresting it or retaining it. They are masters at reading the writing on the wall and adapting to a new situation and Modi is no exception. But, there is little doubt that Modi will have his task cut out for him during his third term. Time will tell whether the government he heads turns out to be a transition arrangement or if he can bounce back with renewed vigour.

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(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide)

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