This election in Bihar is being fought on a very untidy field. Here, the Opposition’s grand alliance or Mahagathbandhan that was put together with much flamboyance and fanfare in 2015 to take on the Narendra Modi-BJP, has been dramatically reconstituted, most leaders and candidates on both sides of the political fence have changed sides since, many more than once, and Nitish Kumar most prominently. In Bihar, unlike in many other states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, political actors zig-zag between all parties, there is no pattern here of a one-way flow towards a dominant BJP. Not just the Mahagathbandhan story, the Bihar story itself has seen a steady waning — from the widespread hope once sparked by Nitish Kumar’s attempt to build on the radical gains made by Lalu Yadav in a state of large inequalities, by taking the caste-centric slogan of "samajik nyay" or social justice and joining it with the plank of “vikas” or development. There was visible progress on the basics of sadak-bijli-paani but the Nitish model stalled before taking the next step to higher education-udyog-naukri (jobs and industry) and meandered into the dead-end of prohibition or sharab-bandi. The 2010 Assembly election was an unusual election, remembers Abhayanand, who served as DGP in the Nitish government that was seen to make a difference, visible improvements in law and order its centrepiece. Because, “in it the ruling party was brought back not for making promises, but because of their fulfilment”. “After that, especially after 2013-14”, he says, “there has been a steep decline …”. He is referring to Nitish’s exit from his alliance with the BJP, and his decision to tie up with Lalu Yadav’s RJD, as the turning point. Nitish, of course, executed several more flip-flops subsequently, and is now back with the Modi-BJP. Come to Bihar in the Lok Sabha polls of 2024 to see these — a tragically depleted figure of Nitish, and his wan, half-done legacy, marred grievously by his own political to-and-fro and now overhung by the much more powerful figure of Narendra Modi. A fully etched Modi, armed with exhortations of larger wholes of “Hindu-desh-videsh” and a panoply of schemes, backed by state resources and an organised party machine, is ranged against a still in-the-making idea and still-fractured promise of a regional leader, RJD’s Tejashwi, who hasn't yet had a full chance to deliver, in a Lok Sabha election that, in any case, gives an advantage to the national span and sweep. Team Modi and Team Tejashwi both have add-on parties with a limited one-caste appeal — like the VIP with the Mahagathbandhan, or with the NDA, the HAM led by Jitan Ram Manjhi. In Patna, BJP national spokesperson Ajay Alok contends that it is not “Modi vs Tejashwi”. In this election, there is only one brand, he says, and the fight is, “Modi vs Virodhi”. RJD’s Manoj Jha, Rajya Sabha MP, denies the implication of a faceless Opposition. “Despite the PM’s dog-whistle politics, this election is about livelihood issues. Naukri matlab Tejashwi (Jobs means Tejashwi)”. Tejashwi says he gave 5 lakh jobs when he was a minister in the JD(U)-RJD Nitish-led government but that claim is contested. Among Yadavs, though, Tejashwi wins, hands down. In this caste group, from which the RJD draws its core support, you repeatedly hear the phrase “17 maheene banam 17 saal” — 17 months of Minister Tejashwi versus 17 years of Nitish government. In previous Lok Sabha elections, the “Yadav vote” was seen to be divided — for the Centre, a section had turned to Modi. This time, along the road The Indian Express travelled, a Yadav re-consolidation was visible, even in a Lok Sabha election, behind the RJD. Coupled with similar signs among the Muslim minority — here, there is a move away from Nitish to the RJD — the RJD can be said to begin on a note of greater unity in its core M-Y combination. After that, however, the picture grows fuzzy. Part of the RJD makeover under Tejashwi is the party’s claim that it has distributed tickets differently this time, to include all castes and communities. “The RJD was never only an M-Y party, that was propaganda. But this time, we are trying for proportional representation, after the caste survey of 2023”, says Manoj Jha. Tejashwi, he says, has added BAAP to MY — Bahujan or backward, Agadi or forward, Aadhi abadi or women and the Poor. On the ground, however, the RJD’s attempt to cast a wider net, in order to transcend the limits of the party’s traditional base, is wavering. In Vaishali, where the party has, in a departure from the past, given a ticket to a prominent upper caste Bhumihar candidate, Munna Shukla, known in these parts as a strongman or “bahubali”, it may not be enough to persuade a caste group that has traditionally shown antipathy to the RJD’s pro-backward politics. In village Agarpur, in Vaishali district, Ranjan Kumar, a driver, says “RJD only wants to capitalise on Shukla’s winnability. Why did it not distribute seats to all castes earlier… We don't want a return to Lalu’s jungle raj”. Others talk of the RJD’s “vanshvaad” or family rule — a charge sharpened by the candidature this time of two daughters from the Lalu family. In the fish market of Donar Allalpatti in Darbhanga town, in a group of Sahnis, the EBC caste of fishermen courted by the VIP which has now allied with the RJD, Lallan Sahni says, “Unchecked pollution and encroachment threaten the water bodies we depend upon for a living… No government in Bihar changes things. But I am not just thinking of Bihar, but of the country… Earlier India was dependent on China, now it is aatmanirbhar (self-sustaining)”. “We will consider Tejashwi when the assembly poll comes, but this is an election for the Centre”, says Chandan Kumar. “I voted for Nitish in earlier elections. His first term was very good, but after that, aaj idhar, kal udhar (he has been switching sides), and Bihar has slid …”. And in Haripur Dak village in Araria, among a group of Kushwahas, a caste group with a newly increased representation on the RJD’s ticket list, the consensus favours free rations and other Modi government schemes, Ram Mandir and Article 370. “Vishwas nahi hai Tejashwi pe (we don't trust Tejashwi)”, they say, “Modi is also making mistakes, but at least he is also delivering”. In Bihar, voter discontents, across castes, are real and teeming. There is the ubiquitous price rise and joblessness, poor quality of education and patchy medical facilities. There is unrelenting migration of the young from the rural areas while urban areas are marred by chronic traffic jams and recurring spectres of waterlogging, among other things. In Darbhanga town, once touted as Mithila region's education and medical hub, the home of lakes and rivers, they point to the many congealed crises — from an AIIMS that was announced, but remains on paper, and a new airport with a too-small capacity, to a university brought to a halt by the tug of war between the governor and the powerful bureaucracy, the drying up of rivers and the failure of most governance initiatives to make the last mile connectivity. “We spent our own money to get water from the government pipeline into my gali (lane)”, says Mohammad Hashim in the Chhapki Paddri locality. “There is electricity in homes, but there are still no street lights in my gali”. Vidyanath Jha, retired professor of Botany, and former principal of two colleges in Darbhanga, says: “There is a contradiction (in my support for Modi). Yahan talaab sookh rahe hain (here, lakes are drying up) but I am voting in the name of global perspective and national stability”. That “contradiction” does not seem to be Jha’s alone. This apparent disconnect between the individual voter’s immediate and pressing circumstances and his or her reason to vote also appears lower down the ladder of caste and class privilege in Bihar. In the backward groups, however, it is also blunted and leavened by the Modi government’s schemes that have reached inside voters’ homes to make them “labharthi” or beneficiaries — of these, most of all, the free rations scheme. Many, across castes, recall the difficult time of the Covid lockdown and express gratitude to government for the delivery in that period, and beyond, of free rice and wheat. What also seems to matter are perceptions of winnability. In the Musahar basti of village Rampur in Araria — the Musahars are among the most backward Dalit groups in the state, the village has no government school and the hospital is also far away — Nago Rishidev says: “All the landed and powerful people will vote one way”. “Jo le jaayega, ussi ko de denge (we will give him who is taking all)”, says Digambar Rishidev. At the Vaishali Mahila Mahavidyalaya, a women's college in Hajipur, where many in the classroom support the Ram mandir and say that reservation sharpens rather than addresses inequalities, Rajnandini is a votary of “change”. The “fourth pillar”, the media, she says, “seems to have joined the BJP. We should ask questions of whosoever is in government. Why does no one talk of Manipur, and why is it that those who join the BJP are cleansed of corruption charges miraculously?” Neha Kumari speaks up for the leader who is widely seen to have been eclipsed, even before all the votes are cast, even among his votaries: “Nitish supported women's education, it is because of him that we are able to study. Unhi ki den hai (it is his legacy)”.
