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Journalism of Courage
It was supposed to be two people fighting each other to victory,until separatist leader Sajad Ghani Lone entered the ring making it a free for all contest to the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat.
The entry of Lone,the second son of slain separatist leader Abdul Ghani Lone,has added spice to the contest in the segment considered to be a stronghold of National Conference,at least on paper. That the PDP is gaining ground in the district 55 km northwest of Srinagar is no secret.
Observers are guessing as to why Lone,who heads the People’s Conference,took a big gamble to contest when chances of his victory in the presence of NC and its arch rival,PDP,are bleak.
In the assembly elections held last year,Lone’s sister Shabnam Lone lost from Kupwara assembly constituency and another of his close lieutenant,Sofi Ghulam Mohiuddin from Handwara are an indicator that Lone will have to get extraordinary support for a berth in Lok Sabha.
However,Lone’s presence may eat into the vote bank of the National Conference,which has put up Sharifuddin Shariq to take on PDP’s Mohammad Dilawar Mir.
Political and independent observers believe the Lone factor can erode the votes of NC in Kupwara district,where the People’s Conference has a strong support base.
If the assembly results are to be followed closely,none of the political parties is in an advantageous position in the constituency.
Of the 15 seats spread over Kupwara,Baramulla and Bandipora district in Baramulla Lok Sabha seat,the NC won seven seats,closely followed by PDP which netted five seats.
The remaining three seats went to Congress,Democratic Party Nationalist (DPN) President Ghulam Hassan Mir and an independent Abdul Rashid Sheikh.
Sheikh,a staunch supporter of Lone,contested the assembly elections against the wishes of Lone and won.
While NC maintained its dominance in Kupwara by winning three of the five assembly seats (the other two seats were shared by PDP and an independent),the PDP has gained considerably in Baramulla and Bandipora districts winning four seats,the same number won by NC in the two districts.
The founder of People’s Conference late Abdul Ghani Lone had represented Karnah and Handwara constituencies before he joined the separatist camp.
Lone,who was assassinated by militants on May 21,2002,had won from Handwara in 1967,1972 and 1977 and from Karnah in 1983.
In 2004 Parliamentary elections,Abdul Rashid Shaheen of NC had won the seat by defeating his nearest rival Nizamuddin Bhat of PDP by a margin of just 9,895 votes.
It would be interesting to see whether NC is able to retain the seat,given the PDP’s emergence as a potent force winning five assembly seats out of 15 from north Kashmir.
It is also to be seen which way the voters of Gulmarg and Uri constituencies go as they would be a decisive factor as both the Congress and the DPN have not fielded their candidates. The Congress is,however,supporting the NC whereas Ghulam Hassan Mir has been silent.
It’s a general feeling that performance of parties would not be much different from last year’s assembly elections.
A strong 10,54,086 electorate including 5,04,308 women will decide the fate of the contestants on May 13. In comparison,there were 9,41,053 voters in the 2004 Parliamentary polls.
Initially,the constituency was stronghold of Congress as its candidate Syed Ahmad Aga had won from the seat in 1967 and 1971 mid-term polls.
However,Abdul Ahad of National Conference had halted Aga’s run for hat-trick in 1977. In the mid-term poll held in 1980,the National Conference retained the seat when its nominee Mubarak Shah was declared elected to the Lok Sabha. In 1984 and 1989,the seat was won by Saifuddin Soz on NC ticket.
In 1996,the seat went to Ghulam Rasool Kar of Congress as NC boycotted the Parliamentary elections that time.
In 1998,the seat was wrested by Soz of NC and in 1999,Abdul Rashid Shaheen of NC won.
