Tracking Transition in 2015: Election in Delhi

After helming the city for a mere 49 days, Kejriwal resigned as Delhi’s CM in February, leading to President’s Rule. That decision continues to haunt the party as they head into the Lok Sabha polls. The AAP and their chief first ignored it, then apologised for it and eventually even made light of the resignation. But with the BJP and the Congress taunting the AAP with slogans like “Bhagoda (absconder)”, the party has an uphill task in convincing voters this time round.

For the AAP, nothing short of a victory — or another fractured mandate — is acceptable. After a poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections, where it won just four seats in Punjab, the AAP has abandoned hopes of contesting elections for any other state and has hedged all its bets on Delhi.

The BJP, too, has shifted strategies. It won 32 seats in the 2013 elections with Union Minister Harsh Vardhan as the CM candidate, but has now decided to focus on Prime Minister Narendra Modi alone. The decision has raised eyebrows, particularly among the old guard, who have never contested elections under the “national leadership”. The BJP’s recent victories in Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharastra have certainly buoyed spirits, but whether the same formula will hold the party in good stead in Delhi’s largely urban electorate remains to be seen.

It is perhaps to the Congress that the National Capital has been most cruel. Three-time CM Sheila Dikshit lost her constituency to Kejriwal and the party fell with her, from 43 seats in 2008 to a paltry eight in 2013.

In the last few months, the party attempted change after elevating relatively younger leaders like state President Arvinder Singh Lovely and Haroon Yusuf. But a lack of clarity from the AICC and a staunch refusal to decentralise power may see the party slink further down in their share of seats in 2015.