Will VS clinch back to back win and buck the cycle?

These questions are dominating the political discourse in Kerala most in the run up to the April 13 polls for the 140 member assembly as campaign reached fever pitch by weekend. But neither coalition has dared to come out with a firm answer,while each front claims the victory is it’s.

“Let the results come out. We will decide without any hitch who will be Chief Minister (or opposition leader depending on the situation).” This has been the response from both sides of the political divide to the poser.

It was almost certain until a couple of months back that Chandy would be the lone contender for the high office if UDF romps home. But Chennithala’s surprise entry as a contestant in his home turf Harippad has slightly blurred the certainty about the post-poll situation in UDF camp.

Still,indications from top Congress leaders are that Chandy is non-negotiable this time. Back in his pocket borough Puthupally in Kottayam district for the 10th consecutive time,Chandy had a brief term as Chief Minister in 2004-06 after resignation of A K Antony in the wake of the Congress’s ignominous defeat in Lok Sabha polls that year.

In the last five years,he has led the UDF as opposition leader and enjoys the confidence of all constituents. According to political observers,these factors are expected to work in his favour.

Though a skilful player who enjoys clout with the party’s central leadership,Chennithala knows the ground reality and that is why he reiterates that he is not eyeing the top post. “I won’t mind sitting in the front bench,back bench or even side bench,” was his response when reporters asked him what would be his position after the polls.

Returning to legislative politics after two decades,Chennithala holds that his mandate is to ensure a thumping victory for the party.

Considering the communal equations in Congress,Chennithala is likely to get a key cabinet berth if UDF gains power as he has the backing of some influential community organisations like Nair Service Society (NSS).

CPI(M) leaders are far less enthusiastic to respond to the leadership question,especially after the drama over Achuthanandan’s candidature. “We will decide the Chief Minister as soon as the results are out,” CPI(M) state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan said when the crucial question was put to him at a meet-the-press the other day.

Repeatedly confronted by this question from journalists,top CPI(M) leaders’ come out with the standard reply that the party’s practise is to settle the leadership question after the polls.

But they dodge a response when asked why the same criterion is not applied in West Bengal where it is again projecting Buddhadeb Bhattcharjee as the Left Front leader.

The history of CPI(M) in Kerala shows confusion over the legislative leadership is not something new as long persisting factional trends in the party had often thrown up surprises.

In 1987,an impression was strong in most parts of Kerala that if LDF won,K R Gowry Amma (now in UDF) would be made chief minister as she was seen as a highly capable administrator who had held key portfolios in Communist ministries since 1957.

Though the party did not make any official commitment,a slogan was coined by the comrades in the campaign in most parts of the state,projecting Gowry Amma as Chief Ministerial candidate.

But after LDF swept the polls,the mantle fell on E K Nayanar,apparently with the support of a strong party faction that included the late E M S Namboodiripad.

Gowry Amma parted ways with CPI(M) a few years later and floated JSS,now a UDF partner. The 92-year-old grand old woman of Kerala politics is back in the fray in Cherthala in Alappuzha district.

The biggest electoral upset in political history of Kerala was Achuthanandan’s defeat in Mararikkulam in 1996 despite LDF grabbing power. Achuthanandan,who was widely projected as the Chief Minister,was then ditched by rivals in his own party as was found by a party inquiry later.

A shrewd politician,Achuthanandan settled scores with his opponents by upsetting their plans to make late Suseela Gopalan Chief Minister by supporting Nayanar,who did not even run for elections at the time.

In 2001,Achuthanandan moved to the safer seat Malampuzha,from where he is seeking elections for the third consecutive time.

Though Achuthanandan is the senior most and popular leader of CPI-M,he is not a member of the Polit Buro (PB),the party’s highest decision making body.

The lone PB member in the fray is Home Minister Kodiyeri Balakrishnan,which has thrown up the question of whether it is the overall seniority or the hierarchical position that would matter in the end.

But CPI(M) sources say such misgivings have no basis as the Central Committee,in which Achuthanandan is a member is the supreme body of the party and the PB just its secretariat.

Unlike CPI(M),Congress had often in the past approached the electorate in Kerala without much confusion over the leadership question.

From early 1970s to mid-1990s,the Congress-led coalition had run elections projecting late K Karunakaran as the leader. After that,it was the turn of A K Antony as the undisputed leader of the UDF in the state.

When Antony resigned as Chief Minister and Chandy was chosen Congress Legislature Party leader,it was termed the end of the era of “Karunakaran-Antony” domination in Congress politics in Kerala.

While Kerala is electing the 13th assembly this time,it is going to be 21st Chief Minister who will be chosen after the results are out on May 13.

Starting from Communist stalwart E M S Namboodiripad in 1957,many Chief Ministers could not run their full terms till the bipolar coalition system solidified in 1982.