The World This Week | Israel-Iran strikes trigger regional tension; UN condemns starvation as warfare method in Gaza; India wraps up trade talks with US

Hours after Israel’s attacks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared India’s concerns with its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who called and briefed him about the situation in the region.

“Received a phone call from PM @netanyahu of Israel. He briefed me on the evolving situation. I shared India’s concerns and emphasised the need for early restoration of peace and stability in the region,” PM Modi wrote on X.

The Israeli strikes followed a few related developments and could have serious consequences for the region and beyond. Let us break it down into prelude, attacks and fallout.

Prelude

In the run up to the Israeli offensive, the US and Israel repeatedly threatened Iran of attacks. The US announced on Wednesday a partial evacuation of its embassy in Iraq, and “the voluntary departure” of dependants of American personnel from locations across West Asia, including Bahrain and Kuwait, citing regional security concerns.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Thursday declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in two decades.

On Sunday (June 15), Iran and the US were to hold the sixth round of nuclear talks. In addition, a UN conference scheduled for June 17-20 aims to deliver a practical action document for the establishment of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The conference will be co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and France.

In the meantime, Israel’s PM Netanyahu faces growing domestic troubles. On June 11, his government narrowly survived an attempt in the Knesset to dissolve Parliament and hold early elections. At the same time, the UK and four other countries have placed sanctions on Israel’s Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Earlier, in April and October 2024, Iran and Israel had direct confrontations. Since October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas and the subsequent Israel’s war on Gaza debilitated Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon – two major components of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’. The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 dealt a further blow to Iran.

Attacks

Early on Friday, Israel carried out strikes against Iran targeting its key nuclear and military sites across the country in which 78 people were reportedly killed and over 300 wounded. 

The Israeli offensive, called Operation Rising Lion, involved over 200 Israeli aircraft executing multiple waves of attacks on approximately 100 targets, and killing senior military officials and nuclear scientists, including Major General Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iran called the attack a “declaration of war” and retaliated with a barrage of long-range missiles targeting Israel’s commercial capital, Tel Aviv, and the city of Haifa in which at least eight people were killed and dozens wounded. according to Al Jazeera. 

Israel’s defense minister warned that “Tehran will burn” if Iran continues firing missiles on Israel. 

Israeli attacks targeted various sites including capital Tehran and military sites surrounding the area, main uranium enrichment facility in the city of Natanz, a nuclear research centre and two military bases in the city of Tabriz, an underground facility storing ballistic missiles in the city of Kermanshah, Al Jazeera reported. 

Israel’s aerial assault on Iran has destroyed the above-ground enrichment plant at Natanz, where there is now “contamination”, said IAEA chief Rafael Grossi during an emergency UN Security Council meeting in New York on Friday. In later strikes, Israel appeared to have also hit two other facilities, in Isfahan and Fordow, he added. 

Netanyahu said the military operation on Iran would “continue for as many days as it takes” to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival.” 

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Lebanon and Bahrain condemned Israel’s attack, while the UN urged both Israel and Iran to show restraint to prevent a deeper regional conflict. 

Fallout

The Israel-Iran conflict triggered serious concern among major stakeholders in the region, including India. The Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement urging both nations to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation.

Nonetheless, a potential regional conflagration puts India’s regional connectivity strategy like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, the International North South Transport Corridor, and the Chabahar port at risk. Trade and commerce, energy imports, and Indian expatriates are other vital concerns for New Delhi. 

The escalating tensions also send shockwaves through global stock markets, with India’s benchmark Sensex closing 573 points lower on Friday. Hike in oil prices further triggered concerns about its global economic repercussions. 

Experts warn that Iran may respond by closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz — a key passage through which 20–25 per cent of global oil supply transits, as well as a critical corridor for LNG shipments from Qatar and the UAE. Qatar, notably, is among the top LNG suppliers to India.

In addition, a deepening Israel-Iran conflict might affect India’s successful balancing of ties with Israel, Iran and the Gulf Arab states for the past decade. 

India’s shifting statements on the Gaza crisis had already led to some questions in the region over its positioning on important West Asian security issues. India on Thursday abstained from a UN General Assembly resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Moreover, speculation of heightened tensions and uncertainty in the region is exacerbated by Iran’s warning to the US, the UK, and France that their bases and ships in the region could be targeted if they intervene to stop Tehran’s strikes on Israel.  

It also warned of severe consequences for American personnel and interests in the region given the US’s prior knowledge of the Israeli attack. The US operates a broad network of military sites, both permanent and temporary, across at least 19 locations in the region, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Its eight permanent bases are located across Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar being the largest military base in the region which has been central to operations in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

In the meantime, the US’s effort to engage Iran diplomatically hit a dead end with Iran calling nuclear talks “meaningless”. 

Israel could also feel the impact of its offensive on its effort to normalise ties with Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which strongly condemned the strikes, labelling them a breach of Iran’s sovereignty and a serious threat to regional stability.

UN condemns starvation as warfare method in Gaza 

Amid Israeli blockade pushing over two million Palestinians to famine, a UN resolution was voted overwhelmingly on Thursday demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all hostages held by Hamas, and unrestricted access for the delivery of food.

The resolution, drafted by Spain titled Protection of civilians and upholding legal and humanitarian obligations “strongly condemns any use of starvation of civilians as a method of warfare.” The resolution was passed with 149 votes in favour, 12 against, and 19 abstaining, including India. 

Unlike in the UN Security Council, the assembly’s resolutions are not legally binding. However, it does reflect the broader opinion of the international community. 

Although India abstained from the resolution “in continuation” of previous votes in December 2022 and December 2024, it expressed deep concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

“Our vote today is in continuation of [these votes], in the belief that there is no other way to resolve conflicts but through dialogue and diplomacy. Our joint effort should be directed towards bringing the two sides closer,” India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Parvathaneni Harish said and called for an early resumption of “direct peace negotiations” between Israel and Palestine. 

In the meantime, widespread hunger amid Israeli blockade since March when it violated a ceasefire with Hamas exposed over two million Palestinians to the risk of famine. Over 55,000 have been killed in Israel’s military campaign, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

Recently, Israel has allowed the UN to deliver a trickle of food assistance while the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) – backed by the US and Israel – is operating several sites of aid delivery in Gaza. 

However, aid seeking Palestinians have been attacked nearly-daily at the GHF-operated aid sites, according to the Associated Press, prompting severe criticism from the UN and other Arab nations questioning the credibility of the organisation. 

Eleven Palestinians were killed overnight near food distribution points, while 16 others were killed in Israeli strikes overnight and into Saturday, the Associated Press reported. 

This week, the Israeli forces also seized a Gaza-bound aid ship and detained the group of 12 activists who were on board, including climate activist Greta Thunberg who was later deported. The British-flagged vessel, the Madleen, was backed by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition – an international movement aiming to end “the illegal Israeli blockade of Gaza”.

According to Al Jazeera, authorities in both Egypt and Libya have also stopped activists – who are part of the Global March to Gaza – seeking to break Israel’s blockade on Gaza.

All the while, all eyes are now on the UN conference on June 17-20 that will bring all members of the General Assembly to discuss how to implement a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. The conference will commence just after the G-7 summit in Canada.

India-US trade talks concluded

Even as diplomatic focus shifts to Israel-Iran strikes and Gaza crisis, India seeks to navigate high-stakes trade negotiations with the US. With less than a month left for the end of 90-day pause on President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, India and the US wrapped up another round of talks during which they discussed tariffs on their respective goods of interest.

The US negotiators concluded a nearly week-long visit on Tuesday which was originally slated to be a two-day round of talks on June 5-6. Tariffs on goods of American interest such as corn, soybeans, nuts, cars, spirits and those of Indian interest such as textiles, footwear, tea, and coffee were discussed. 

Alongside, the rules of origin which determine whether a product qualifies for preferential tariff treatment also featured during the discussion. 

This round of trade talks was significant because the White House earlier this month wrote to all its trade partners seeking their best offers, with the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs just weeks away.

Meanwhile, India and the European Union (EU) have made “good progress” on goods trade as they close on a deal following the 11th round of trade talks last month. The two sides wrapped up five of the 23 chapters covered in the bilateral talks, including the challenging area of intellectual property rights (IPR). 

India-EU trade talks came close on the heels of the India-UK Free Trade Agreement, which is seen as an important factor given that London and Brussels are competitors in several product categories such as spirits, medical equipment and cars.

The EU report on the 11th round of talks said that “good progress” was made in the trade in goods chapter while the chapters on transparency, good regulatory practices, customs and trade facilitation, IPR, as well as mutual administrative assistance provisions, were closed. 

Negotiations on goods assume significance as an EU official had said that the trade deal with India hinges on Delhi’s commitment to lowering duties on cars, amid an ongoing crisis in the European automobile sector. Moreover, the EU is seeking better access to India’s wine and spirits market, in line with the access already granted to the UK. 

At the same time, talks on the agri-food sector continued, while the chapter on ‘Energy and Raw Materials’ was agreed to be put aside ahead of the talks. The two sides also made “substantial progress” in the chapters on ‘services and investments’ and ‘digital trade’. 

However, as India and the EU move forward, an unusual trade challenge emerged in the ongoing trade tensions with Bangladesh. 

Bangladeshi factories, which generate over half a million metric tonnes of textile waste annually, is the top source for the 150-200 mills operating in Panipat. The recycling hub in Panipat recycles over 200 tonnes of rags daily. However, shipments from Bangladesh have been halted, sparking concern among traders and manufacturers.

China to supply rare earths: Trump 

US President Trump said that China would supply “any necessary rare earths” and magnets – essential to building cars, missiles and a host of electronic products – after the two sides concluded two-day trade negotiations (June 9-10) in London.  

The agreement allows the US to charge a 55 per cent tariff on imported Chinese goods, which, crucially, includes a 10 per cent baseline “reciprocal” tariff, a 20 per cent tariff for fentanyl trafficking, and a 25 per cent tariff reflecting pre-existing tariffs (imposed by Trump in his first term, that the Biden administration persisted with), Bloomberg quoted a White House official as saying. China would charge a 10 per cent tariff on American imports, the official said. 

Chinese state media said on Wednesday (June 11) that Beijing had reached a “framework” for an agreement with the US during talks in London, but there was no official response from China on Trump’s subsequent claims on Truth Social. 

Trump also added that a final deal is subject to approval from him and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Since the details of the deal were unclear, analysts predicted that China seems to have gained the upper-hand after its rare earth restrictions prompted US carmakers, including Ford Motor and Chrysler, to cut production. Chinese export controls over rare earth minerals were high on the agenda of the meetings. 

However, China’s official news agency Xinhua published an editorial on Monday (June 9) about the country’s export controls on certain rare earth-related items, underlining that “viewing these measures as mere short-term bargaining tools underestimates the strategic depth of China’s policy decisions”.

EU’s sanctions on Russia

Russia launched drones and missiles on two Ukrainian cities on Tuesday (June 10) that killed three people and wounded at least thirteen others in what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called “one of the biggest” strikes in the three-year-old war.

The attack struck the capital Kyiv and the southern port city of Odesa. A maternity hospital and residential buildings in the centre of the southern port city of Odesa were damaged in the attack, the Associated Press cited Ukraine’s regional head Oleh Kiper as saying.

The attacks came a day after Moscow launched almost 500 drones at Ukraine in the biggest overnight drone bombardment in the three-year war.

In recent days, Russia has launched a record-breaking number of drones and missiles on Ukraine despite both sides holding direct peace talks in Istanbul last week. The peace talks have led to prisoner exchanges so far, not a ceasefire.

The second round of talks took place against the backdrop of Ukraine’s “Operation Spider’s Web”, in which a swarm of 117 FPV (first-person view) drones targeted at least five military airbases deep within Russian territory, reportedly destroying 41 bomber aircraft. 

During the last peace talks, Russia rejected Ukraine’s offer of an unconditional ceasefire and rather demanded its capitulation to its conditions. Moscow currently controls about a fifth of Ukrainian territory and insists Kyiv must relinquish it, envisioning a permanently “neutral” Ukraine. Kyiv, on the other hand, demands a full Russian withdrawal and seeks NATO membership.

Meanwhile, Germany – Ukraine’s second-biggest military backer after the US – reiterated its support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. 

“We are doing everything we can to support Ukraine so that it can defend itself and get into a position where Russia is prepared to enter into serious negotiations,” Reuters cited Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius as saying. 

At the same time, the European Commission on Tuesday proposed an 18th package of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, aimed at Moscow’s energy revenues, its banks and its military industry.

The Commission has also proposed lowering the Group of Seven nations (G7) price cap on Russian crude oil to $45 a barrel, from $60 a barrel, in a bid to cut Russia’s energy revenues, Reuters reported. 

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