2024 was the year war came to our mobile phones, with air raids and bomb blasts captured and streamed live on our screens. It was also a year that saw severe challenges to the ‘rules-based international order’, raising questions about the viability of the idea of a liberal, democratic world built on free trade and international charters. What is the liberal international order? The rules-based global order, or liberal international order, refers to a structure or a set of relationships that significant sections of the world have been governed by, broadly since World War II, though some scholars date it to the end of the Cold War between the United States and the USSR. Led by the US, this order champions democracy; respect for human rights and equality (between people and between sovereign nations); international cooperation, including on security; and open markets. Instead of might being right, it seeks to resolve disputes through multilateral institutions such as the United Nations, the International Court of Justice, and the International Criminal Court (ICC). “This year was not the first in which the liberal world order was challenged, but the challenges were deeper and more visible in 2024. For example, it was during the pandemic that the Global South began questioning the leadership of the first world and the institutions it dominated, but the gulf widened ever more this year,” Ashok Sajjanhar, former IFS officer and president of Institute of Global Studies, New Delhi, told indianexpress.com. Here are six key factors that contributed to the apparent decline of the global order in 2024: War in Middle East, Ukraine The ongoing war in Ukraine underscored the limitations of treaties, international obligations, and sanctions in the face of determined armed aggression. With the conflict well into its third year, cracks have begun to show in the West’s unified support for Ukraine. But the bloodier theatre of war has been West Asia, where Israel pounded Gaza and Lebanon, despite the UN accusing it of war crimes. The US continued to support Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the teeth of international opposition, damaging its credibility further in large parts of the Global South. After the ICC arrest warrant against Netanyahu, member states Germany, France, and Italy shied away from upholding it. For many, the scale of destruction in West Asia has eroded trust in a rules-based order, as its flagrant violations get more visibility via social media. “The so-called rules-based global order adopted by the international community in the aftermath of World War II had inherent lacunae and inefficacies that have been repeatedly evident, both in situations of armed conflict as well as in relation to other major issues. In the contemporary context, the international order is in shambles, as demonstrated by the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel’s shockingly disproportionate use of force after Hamas terror attacks in October 2023,” said Sanjiv Arora, former secretary of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). The US elections The election of Donald Trump as US President has also posed a significant challenge to the liberal international order. Trump has said under him, the US will refuse to be its allies' security guarantor, won't get involved in “other people's wars”, and pursue an 'America First' trade policy. In his last term, Trump's policies abroad had not varied much from the US establishment's general positions. Given that the rules-based order is underwrit by America's military might, it remains to be seen what Trump’s second term — and the fact that he decisively won a democratic election — will mean for the world. “With Trump, we need to understand that the US is not willing to give up its dominance of the world. What it wants to retreat from is the leadership role, where its allies depended on it for security, and international institutions were often carried on its shoulders,” Sajjanhar said. Trade and supply chain challenges In an increasingly illiberal, protectionist world, free trade has suffered setbacks. Sanctions by the US and the West against unfriendly countries have shown that free trade is in fact prisoner to geopolitical aims. Disruptions caused by the Ukraine war and the Houthis' attacks in the Red Sea have underlined vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Additionally, Trump's threat of tariffs against China and other countries signals a departure from the promises of free trade freeing up wealth. “The US-led tariff war today is rapidly threatening to rival the infamous Smoot-Hawley measures of the 1930s [where the US raised import duties], which led to a global trade war. Moreover, Trump's proposed spike in tariffs potentially against the rest of the world has put the already senile post-war order of free trade truly on its deathbed. A new era of intensified trade and economic contradictions, leading to uncertain geopolitical conflicts, is fast resembling the situation before World War II,” Hemant Adlakha, who teaches at JNU's Centre for Chinese and South East Asian Studies, told indianexpress.com. COP debacle Perhaps the starkest example of a lack of global cooperation has been on the climate action front. COP 29 in Baku has largely been a debacle, as countries refuse to agree on means and targets to limit global warming. The developed countries refuse to accede to the developing countries' demand of adequate funding, and this has held up any constructive dialogue on climate change solutions. The rise of the far-right in Europe For decades, Europe enjoyed the fruits of post world war peace. Now, as economic development slows in many parts of the continent, its population ages, waves upon waves of migrants crash upon its shores, and its security is threatened, right wing ideologies are witnessing a resurgence. France's doddering government, which just lost one more prime minister (its third this year), is one example. Hungary, Poland, and the Netherlands, also saw the election of leaders who stand for values that diverge from liberal, democratic principles. The new opinion-makers In the liberal world order, ideas and culture emanating from the US-led West were presented as aspirational ideals to the rest of the world. The opinion-makers were few, and largely liberal. Their dominance in shaping global narratives has now waned. The rise of social media has led to a mushrooming of influencers, podcast stars, and anonymously created “reels” and “forwards”. Also, a major shaper of people's minds is the unknowable 'Algorithm' — which decides what content is drip-fed to your brain, with users having little control over the process. While all this has democratised the flow of ideas, it has also made it less accountable and introduced challenges, including the spread of misinformation. The liberal international order has often been criticized as a framework reflecting US interests. As countries like India, Turkey, Indonesia become more vocal, China's rise continues, and Russia hangs on as a major power, the global power structure is undergoing a change. However, in recent years, while there have been retreats and compromises on ideology, not many new ideas have been put forth. As the global architecture changes, the coming years will determine whether this churn will throw up fresh ideas about inclusive prosperity, intersectional equality, and democracy. “Moving ahead, the long-overdue reform of the United Nations and Bretton Woods institutions [the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, set up after the Bretton Woods Conference in July 1944], so as to reflect contemporary realities can make a positive contribution in meeting global challenges more effectively,” Arora said.
