Caste, campaigns, and mahaul: UP Election Special – Part 2

Automated Transcription:
Shashank Bhargava 0:03
Dear listeners, this is the second part of our special election series on Uttar Pradesh. A series of in depth and insightful conversations about UP between Monojit Majumdar who heads the Indian Express’ Explained section, and Ravish Tiwari Indian Express’s chief of Political Bureau. In the first part, they had talked about the fundamentals of local politics. In this episode, the conversation is about caste politics, and the role of personalities, and political campaigns. The next episode will be released next Saturday. That is on the 19th of February. Here’s Monojit Majumdar.

Monojit Majumdar 0:45
Very warm welcome to all our listeners. We are recording this on Thursday, February 10. As the state is voting in the first phase: 58 seats of which the BJP won 53 in 2017. 2022 is widely expected to be different. If it does. If the BJP does lose a chunk of the seats it won the last time, a major reason would be the coming together of the Jaats and the Muslims, which together make up a large chunk of votes in western UP. Ravish, what is the role of caste identity in this election?

Ravish Tiwari 1:22
Thank you Monojit for having me again. Caste is a reality. This is a reality which plays every time when election happens. So, first of all, the caste becomes a consideration when political parties are deciding their candidates. Through a series of elections, political parties keep a tab on which castes are voting on which side or which area has a tentative rough number of which castes are prevalent in a particular constituency. So they have a rough idea of caste composition because there is no latest data, there is no breakdown. So it’s a very rough idea on which basis the political parties have by-and-large decided that these constituencies are dominated by these couple of castes. And that’s how we have to balance. So caste become very important determinant of electoral outcome.

Monojit Majumdar 2:10
So Ravish, this dominance that you say, are you talking of numerical dominance or social dominance? What exactly do you mean by dominance?

Ravish Tiwari 2:19
Monojit, there are two ways the dominance is a factor in political parties. The one is numerical dominance. Obviously, if you know that numerically, if you’re 30 plus percent, you become very significant chunk of electorate. In a first-pass-post system, 30% is huge number if you get an extra — few extra percentage of votes. But the second is how politically organized a particular caste group is conceived of when he started mobilizing lower communities for political elections, they initially he started the slogan of “Jiski kitni sankhya bhaari, uski itni hissedaari.” So you will get as much representation in candidates, as much your numerical strength in constituencies are. And subsequently evolved into a separate fashion because not every caste community is politically organized or aware that “I need to do political bargaining in a democratic elections”. So it became “Jiski jitni tayaari, uski itni hissedaari.” So that means a political caste, how much you are politically organized, with that share, you will get share in political power. And in fact, that is the thing with communities like Jaats or Yadavs, they have been politically organizing for several decades now. Jaats began organizing from Charan Singh in 1950s. Yadavs were following from 60s onwards, and they eventually got politically organized in 90s. So if you look at the political power sharing, how Jaats were the first beneficiaries in UP politics and then Yadavs became a political beneficiary. So “Jiski jitni tayaari, uski itni hissedaari.” So on that basis, the different caste groups come into play in every election.

Monojit Majumdar 3:58
Yeah, so I know the political organization is absolutely important, I think, which is why you say that the Dalits in UP, were for the first time really organized by Kanshi Ram and turned into a political force in UP and the Dalit movement has not done too well politically also, because I think outside UP in Maharashtra, for example, the organization has not been that strong. Ravish, the other thing after caste, I wanted to ask you, what about individual personalities? Like, what role does a magnetic larger than life figure play in determining voter preferences as opposed to identities like say caste or community or issues such as employment or prices?

Ravish Tiwari 4:44
Personalities bring something extra to the table. As we said, political organizations, political parties are already organized the voters. So there are already a large chunk of voters which have politically committed that “I will vote this party or that party”. So, during the election campaign last few days or last few months, political parties are not targeting those groups which are already determined that “I’m voting this way or that way”. The issue is about capturing floating voters and how do you swing their vote preferences. In that context, personalities become very important and the way they create — in Hindi the word is mahaul — and the way they communicate trust to people is where it becomes very significant. Like this time Prime Minister Narendra Modi, one of the biggest campaigners for the BJP has not gone out in the field in the first phase at all, but the other two personalities from Samajwadi parties who are out of action is Mulayam Singh Yadav and Azam Khan. They will be completely out of action flow through all seven phases. I mean they bring different kinds of press when they go into the field with a dhoti-clad Mulayam Singh communicating with old voter and the peasant voters. He brings a different kind of communication to the electorate. Azam Khan with his fiery speeches, he created a different kind of thing which will opposition sometimes viewers for their advantage.

Azam Khan 6:06
Paas bas Hindostan ke sau-pacchies crore log khoon chaas rooye hain. Majdur roya hai, kisaan roya hai, maa royi hai, behen royi hai, beti royi hai. Aao intizaam lo, badla lo.

Ravish Tiwari 6:26
So these two personalities out and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has in the first phase only communicated to people through video conferences. They don’t bring the same kind of charge that a physical presence because people come from different parts of a town or different parts of the district to just see a rally.

Monojit Majumdar 6:44
Ravish, if I may interrupt when you were talking about Mulayam Singh in the dhoti, I remember once in the newsroom, you had told me a story about how when Mallikarjun Kharge was appointed in an important position in the Congress and Mulayam Singh Yadav had appreciatively said ki “accha hai, dhoti pehenta hai”. So, the signaling is so important.

Ravish Tiwari 7:03
Absolutely. Absolutely. Because the most of the people in rural areas, for a rural voter it’s very natural to see a dhoti-clad man. So the moment they say a leader is like that, there is a natural association, this person might understand our situation, he might be aware of our plight and that’s why that dressing itself communicates a bit of trust. I can trust this man. If a rural electorate sees a person in a very completely suit-boot. I mean, this is not clear association So Kanshi Ram used to get associated with Dalits because if you see his dressing: it was shirt which was not tucked in, and a pant that is crumpled, so it would easily associate with his voters. That’s a completely normal man.

Monojit Majumdar 7:45
Yeah, absolutely. Ravish, on the question of personalities that this is a deviation from UP but this is about Uttarakhand, which is voting on February 14, the BJP has changed its Chief Minister twice in Uttarakhand in the last five years so Pushkar Singh Dhami is the third CM of Uttarakhand since 2017. Is that because the BJP thought that the previous chief minister, Tirath Singh Rawat would not be able to win them the elections this time.

Ravish Tiwari 8:12
This is where personality is also powerful. Many times personalities go unpopular. They go just so unpopular that they even bring down the enthusiasm into your own politically committed voters. The biggest example was in 2019 Assembly elections in Jharkhand. BJP bet very big on Chief Minister Raghubar Das. Then that party unit said that “I think people are angry with him, and we should change him”. The leadership says it was such a short notice that it will completely hobble the unit and they did not change Chief Minister. It’s so happened the Chief Minister lost from his own constituency and the BJP lost power in Jharkhand. So sometimes unpopularity of personalities bring down entire party’s electoral prospects. So this was one thing, there was growing discontent or Trivendra Singh Rawat not only within the party, but also the wider Sangh parivar because of some of his decisions about the mandir — their temples and their trust. So it created disenchantment about the BJP score Hindutva voters and the BJP had to placate them and this is where he had to be replaced. They replaced with a person who could not go into a by-election that’s why they have to replace and get Pushkar Dhami. Pushkar Dhami is a completely new beast, he studied in Lucknow, he has done student politics in Lucknow university. So he knows politics but he has been MLA for two terms and both the Chief Minister’s, Trivendra Singh Rawat and Tirath Singh Rawat, did not deem him senior enough to even make him a Minister of State in the cabinet. So that way he is a very young, new face. So at least he does not bring any baggage on the table. So there is nothing for electorate to accuse him. So that is the one thing where he can keep asking electorate “Give me a chance. I have got only six months to demonstrate. Give me a chance.”

Monojit Majumdar 9:58
No but Uttrakhand it’s quite interesting Ravish, I mean, the state was formed in November 2000. So it is a little over 21 years now. So in 21 years it has had 13 Chief Ministers I mean, there have been repeats like Harish Rawat and BC Khanduri were there for more than a single term, even though not full terms, but still 13 Chief Ministers in 20 years, Pushkar Dhami is, the 13th What is it about this political instability in Uttarakhand? Can’t be just individuals right?

Ravish Tiwari 10:29
This is a problem that has happened with the smaller states. Similar situation we’ll find in Goolwa, with a small assembly. Even Jharkhand, which was found with Uttarakhand have seen similar kind of instability. The same with Uttarakhand what happens in a smaller assembly, a leader with a loyalty of five to six MLAs can always hobble the government that “I’ll pull down the government. If I get out, you become a minority government and I can pull you down.” And in that, the factional politics within the parties become very important. And that’s why the instable, the only time you’ve seen a full term is Narayan Datt Tiwari, when the first election was held, the government was formed from 2002 to 2007. And Narayan Datt Tiwari is a veteran who could command respect across the party, like who could maintain those five years of tenure. But other than that, every, even Congress has got a majority, but it has not been able to maintain the same Chief Minister for five years. It’s just because internal rivalry within the party, internal egos that “I wanted to become Chief Minister” has got undue and then you galvanize, all you need is five to ten MLAs. And then you just extract that pound of flesh and the party leadership succumb to that.

Monojit Majumdar 11:37
Yeah, in fact, the new states that were created, only Chhattisgarh has had this relatively stable governments, both Jharkhand and Uttarakhand. So coming back to UP, Ravish, the point where I stopped you when you were talking about the campaign. Now, I wanted to ask you that because of the COVID restrictions. I mean, physical campaigning has been stopped by the election commission. And I’m sure that is one of the reasons why the Chief Minister has not addressed too many election meetings. To what extent do you think that campaigning really matters? I mean, it’s an odd question, but we know that those videos of empty chairs and huge crowds, I mean, both can be misleading. So specifically, will the fact that there have been no physical rallies impact the chances of the two main rivals in this election?

Ravish Tiwari 12:28
See, first of all, looking from outside, any outside observer should not make a guess on, never hazard a political guess on which side the wind is blowing just on the basis of how big a crowd is there in rallies. Prime Minister Narendra Modi do huge crowds in Bihar in 2015 Assembly elections, in Bihar, but the electoral outcome went completely the other side. So looking from outside a crowd, in a rally or in a series of rallies is never a barometer of which side the wind is blowing. It’s actually how much enthusiasm you find in the crowd, how quickly the ground is filled. If the composition of the crowd is more than their committed voters, then you realize that the campaign is drawing in people from different social groups. That gives indicator that the party is winning or losing otherwise the campaigning generally used by political parties to create a perception that “we are a viable option, or we can form the government” Those we’re not going to rallies that they’re proven to that side, and they look at, because those were coming to rallies keep sloganeering from time-to-time. That creates a mahaul and that’s what political parties try to do, big rallies, just send a mahaul that “we arrived, just look at how big a rally is and how big the enthusiasm is.”

Monojit Majumdar 13:48
So Ravish, you have been to many of these election rallies when this mahaul that you’re talking about, the big leader comes, what exactly happens?

Ravish Tiwari 13:57
It’s a scene to watch. The first thing that we see and you will see from even a distance even if you’re not on the ground is the helicopter landing. And for rural area, this is the first opportunity for most of them to see a helicopter from close. And most of the time if the campaign is not being or the party is not performing well, most of their audience will in fact be surrounding the helicopter from a distance and they’ll be looking at a helicopter.

Audience 14:33
(audience cheering near helicopter landing)

Unknown Speaker 14:36
And we have seen at many times that almost 20% to 30% of the audience and mostly children definitely who rush towards the barricade meet for helicopter. That’s the first thing that anybody can see from a distance. From nearby, the stage is where signaling is communicated. The kind of people sitting on the stage, mostly the leaders get local leaders from different communities who are dominant in the constituency so that when they take their name it signals to the community in the constituency that they are on the stage with the big leader.

Akhilesh Yadav 15:08
Benpuri sheher mein Raju Yadav ladh rahe hai, unki madad karna. Alok Shah ladh rahe hai, unki madad karna. Vijay Keheriya ladh rahe hai, unki madad karna. In sahbi pratyashiyo ko eetihasik vote de karke jitane ka kaam karna.

Ravish Tiwari 15:16
So this is the one thing and the sloganeering the way a leader steps onto the stage and the sloganeering that charges the crowd. And for us, an observer, we watch how deep is the slogan going in? If people even at the back of the crowd are sloganeering, that gives an indication how enthusiastic the crowd is.

Narendra Modi 15:48
UP plus Yogi, bohot hai Upyogi!

Mayawati 15:55
Abh mere yehi kehna hai ki aap logon ko har polling booth ko jitana hai aur BSP ko sata mein laana hai.

Yogi Adityanath 16:05
Dono haath uttha karke mere saath bolenge, bharath maata ki jai! Bharath maata ki jai!

Ravish Tiwari 16:14
So these are some indicators that we find in a big rally. At the end of a rally is mostly how difficult it is to get out. Because the end of the rally suddenly the crowd is dispersing. And everybody’s searching for the vehicles and the roads are choked. So that’s another indicator how big a rally was, how choked the city got at the end of a rally. And that shows it was a big rally or not?

Monojit Majumdar 16:36
Yes, absolutely. So in the absence Ravish, of a mahaul like this in this elections, what are the other ways in which political parties campaign and how effective do you think this kind of subterranean campaign is, in the absence of these large visible rallies?

Ravish Tiwari 16:57
In a way, this becomes the first test case because of the COVID restriction, the way rallies have been restricted. I think this will become a test case for academicians, those who are trying to understand how campaigns affect, how does the new technology is effective because the use of new technology, Twitter, social media became prevalent from 2014 elections, when Narendra Modi started using these new digital tools to spread a word about his electoral promises. And since then, every political party has picked on it they have created. Now every party has an IT cell to manage these digital campaigns. So, this is the first time parties have not at least in the first place, have not been able to campaign and it has all been the two things — a digital campaign and the subterranean campaign. Digital campaigns have brought a new kind of worker, a digital worker. A digital political worker need not be in where the campaign is happening. A digital worker for your party may be sitting in Bangalore or in San Francisco and just spreading a word through social media platforms about party. So a digital worker has the flexibility to sit from anywhere in the world and just create a perception. For the subterranean campaign is where your physical political workers, traditional political workers come into play. While there is a ban, you can always put posters. People put wall posters, they’ll put put small stickers on people’s gates so that the second party feel that they are a supporter of the first party. The household owner may not know who has put on the poster, but this is a political circus keep doing the wall paintings, and those stickers, handbills distribution, even small nukkad sabhas. I mean, on a tea shop in the evening were in the villages or small towns, issues gathering a political worker suddenly start political discussion and navigates it. I mean, being a political worker, they know how to navigate it to their territory. So that is the subterranean campaign which will rely extensively on party organization and how enthusiastic your party workers work when the campaigns for physical campaigns are not happening. So that I mean, because here you are incognito, nobody’s noticing that you’re going to that village and you are trying to mobilize voters for yourself. That extracts a lot of political commitment from a political workers. And it will be a test case for both the campaign techniques, the digital political worker, and the physical political worker, at least in the first phase.

Monojit Majumdar 19:17
So Ravish. Let me now take you back to what you had spoken about in the last episode of this series, that this election, unlike every election UP since 1985, perhaps is going to be bipolar. Straight fights between the BJP and SP-RLD. I’m sure the Congress and the BSP will get something but by-and-large, this is a straight bipolar contest. What is significant about a straight fight and how can it change outcomes.

Ravish Tiwari 19:47
It can fluctuate from one side to the other side completely. And that’s why one has to be very careful about outcomes of bipolar elections because, if it swings, it may swing decisively to one party or it can become a bipolar contest constituency. It is very localized, every constituency is a bitter fight between two parties and it becomes last minute battle for the extra margin to win and it can become very neck-to-neck. The last example was in 2017 Gujarat assembly elections, both Congress and BJP raised their vote shares. It became so bipolar and both parties, both Congress and BJP got their vote shares out but BJP just won by piece of skin of the teeth. I mean, 10 seats here and there and it could have been a complete different outcome. Prime Minister had to put in extra hours in the last round, a couple last phases of the elections to just ensure that the BJP wins. So this is a case where a bipolar, both parties increase their vote shares and the winner only scraped through marginally. In UP, the bipolar elections have swung even with a very small vote percentages from one party to the other party completely.

Monojit Majumdar 21:00
So Bengal, last year, it turned out to be a bipolar election because the left and the Congress were swept aside and they got only about 8% of the vote together. And in this straight TMC-BJP fight, the BJP still got 38% of the vote. Now that is a very large vote percentage. But in terms of seats, everyone says that the TMC swept the elections so I think that is what you’re referring to. Right?

Ravish Tiwari 21:29
Exactly yeah. It’s very deadly for Psephologists to convert seat to vote projections in these kinds of situations. So a BJP gained, such as from from 11% previous assembly to 38%. I mean, 25% gain in a vote share, and they remain a very distant second party. Mamta gained assembly seats, more than 200 seats she won, and BJP won only 77 Assembly seats. So, it’s a nightmare for any Psephologist to guess in a bipolar election. Because if it swings, it seems like nobody. At times when there is a view, you can always do more that this party’s sweeping and then the vote share gaps will be very huge. In that situation it’s very obvious but sometimes it could be neck-to-neck and it can be very difficult. Again giving the example of Gujarat, BJP just won because it served urban areas and Congress accept almost every rural area where Patels were there and the farmers were there in Gujarat 2017. So BJP won because it served all urban areas and Gujarat is a highly urbanised state. It has got urban agglomerations in Surat, Vododara Ahemedadab, Rajkot. I mean these big agglomerations have a large number of Assembly seats. It’s a very difficult geographical spread. It’s a nightmare to predict how much a party will win.

Monojit Majumdar 22:42
Absolutely. Thank you Ravish. That was wonderful.

Ravish Tiwari 22:44
Thank you, Monojit, for hosting me.

Monojit Majumdar 22:46
UP is voting in phase one today. The next phase is on Monday, February 14, and the third phase is on February 20. Thank you for listening. See you next week.

Shashank 22:59
You were listening to a special election series by The Indian Express. This show was produced by me, Shashank Bhargav, and edited and mixed by Suresh Pawar. If you like the show, then do subscribe to us and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. You can also tweet us at Express podcast and write to us at podcast at Indianexpress.com